[AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB

[Peter Dean]

Yeah, still kicking Len.
I monitored the morning fixed and for my selections it ended 7% over so was a bit worse than BSP and VicBet BOB.
I like your 21% but I guess if I was that smart and knew who would be fav at 9am I could just lay and crush.
As you say, the bet size impacts BSP hence I am trying to kick up turnover with bet volume rather than raising stake.
Hmmmm.. need to keep pondering.

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From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com> on behalf of L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au>
Sent: Tuesday, December 17, 2019 8:34:14 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB


Peter, you are still around!



Quick and maybe a little dirty (any one old enough to remember QDOS?)



I isolated 13735 favourites in TAB races this YTD for which I had TAB (NSW) dividend/price for the winner, outright Fav only (no equal), no late scratchings (after I collect fixed prices at around 9am Qld, NSW, Vic, Tas, SA, NT, after scratchings are in for WA ), no Dead Heats.



4806 won, the de rigueur 35% strike rate.



Top morning fixed price for those 4806 was on average 21% greater than TAB. Top fixed morning odds for those 4806 was on average 43% greater than TAB.



How you determine what will be favourite at 9am is in your hands.



Betfair SP can be affected by your bet, especially with big bets (and don't forget their disclaimer "Price comparison removes Betfair commission charges" - that commission is as high as 10%), as can TAB dividend.



LBL







From: Racing On Behalf Of Peter Dean
Sent: Tuesday, 17 December 2019 18:27 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB



Hi,



Looking for advice on how to avg. about  12% better than what you would receive on the TAB for a favourite.



Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better ways that people are happy to advise on.



Thanks in advance,



Peter
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