[AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 8
norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
Wed Jun 20 09:44:29 AEST 2018
Ok thanks Steve. I think I've got that. I guess any time has to be measured
against Open class and adjusted from the relative class figure so might as
well just use the one figure from the off.
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20/06/18,
09:42:33
On Wed, Jun 20, 2018 at 9:30 AM <racing-request at ausrace.com> wrote:
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> 1. Re: Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 5 (Steve)
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Message: 1
> Date: Wed, 20 Jun 2018 09:28:10 +1000
> From: Steve <essbee at internode.on.net>
> To: racing at ausrace.com
> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 5
> Message-ID: <5c49c6e7-fffb-d615-ad77-bdfeb896215d at internode.on.net>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"; Format="flowed"
>
> Ditto Nick
> If you understand time stuff, then....
> Your class figure should be some estimation of central
> tendency(average/median/whatever) of the speeds.
> The speed should be the individual.
> They are both the same thing...one the overall, one the average(or
> whatever) and that gives you your measuring stick(expectation)
> Thus your class figure should also just be a percentage of your standard
> time.
> For instance G1 at Flemington might be the equivalent of your standard.
> A low standard benchmark race might be only 98% of your standard.
> Thus the G1 will be 100
> The low one will be 80....or 20 metres per 1000 slower on average
> SteveB
>
>
> On 20/06/2018 8:58 AM, norsaintpublishing at gmail.com wrote:
> > Interesting Lindsay. What about par times for individual classes? And
> > then somehow relating that to open par times? Does that make sense.
> > Got to reply to all on one post, such is the manner it comes through.
> > Mike, your 81 year old brain is obviously in better shape than my 60
> > year old one.
> > And as for the missing posts re Stradbroke, Andrew, I didn't get any
> > of them. Not sure what the hell is going on the list but receiving
> > posts is now a very rare thing.
> >
> >
> >
> > Mailtrack
> > <
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> > 20/06/18, 08:54:57
> >
> >
> > On Tue, Jun 19, 2018 at 11:42 PM <racing-request at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing-request at ausrace.com>> wrote:
> >
> > Send Racing mailing list submissions to
> > racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>
> >
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> >
> > When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific
> > than "Re: Contents of Racing digest..."
> >
> >
> > Today's Topics:
> >
> > ? ?1. Par Times (mikemcbain at tpg.com.au <mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au
> >)
> > ? ?2. Test (Andrew Child)
> > ? ?3. Re: Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3 (Race Stats)
> >
> >
> >
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> >
> > Message: 1
> > Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2018 09:05:10 +1000
> > From: <mikemcbain at tpg.com.au <mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au>>
> > To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> > Subject: [AusRace] Par Times
> > Message-ID: <000601d40758$cf3c0280$6db40780$@tpg.com.au
> > <http://tpg.com.au>>
> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
> >
> > Norsaint
> >
> >
> >
> > Cannot be an ?age thing? or my 81yo brain would have long
> > forgotten it too.
> >
> >
> >
> > Mike.
> >
> >
> >
> > G'day Mike,
> >
> > ? ? ? ? Thanks for the suggestion. I got that email too? but had
> > forgotten all about it. Must be an age thing.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> > ------------------------------
> >
> > Message: 2
> > Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2018 19:45:14 +1000
> > From: Andrew Child <awchildmelb at gmail.com
> > <mailto:awchildmelb at gmail.com>>
> > To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> > Subject: [AusRace] Test
> > Message-ID: <f9e7117b-088e-5246-e1d2-4b9d9602d5e5 at gmail.com
> > <mailto:f9e7117b-088e-5246-e1d2-4b9d9602d5e5 at gmail.com>>
> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8; format=flowed
> >
> > I seem to be missing stuff, according to the June archive - Len's
> > post,
> > and four of Tony's re Stradbroke!
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------------------------
> >
> > Message: 3
> > Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2018 13:41:12 +0000
> > From: Race Stats <RaceStats at hotmail.com
> > <mailto:RaceStats at hotmail.com>>
> > To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> > Subject: Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3
> > Message-ID:
> > ? ? ? ?
> > <
> MEAPR01MB32057578EF89B5FB7E5005B1BB700 at MEAPR01MB3205.ausprd01.prod.outlook.com
> > <mailto:
> MEAPR01MB32057578EF89B5FB7E5005B1BB700 at MEAPR01MB3205.ausprd01.prod.outlook.com
> >>
> >
> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
> >
> > Hi Nick,
> > Regarding Len?s suggestions regarding par times, I thought I?d
> > give you a little bit of extra information.
> > Par times by themselves are pretty nebulous as Len suggests.
> > If you?re familiar with Excel, here is my recommendation.
> > Often you will find that track record times are often on many
> > races one day at a venue, so obviously the track is faster than
> > the rating.
> > Forget Class records, they mean very little overall.
> > Take the race times and dissect them into overall time, final
> > sectional time and then race time minus sectional time, this will
> > give you the pace time.
> > You MUST have a par time for every going condition not just Soft,
> > you need Soft5, Soft6, Soft7.
> > Look at the top horses that won with fast race time, then fast
> > last sectional, then pace time.
> > You?ll soon see the impact of what is useful and what is not.
> > You?ll also see where the track rating is obviously wrong when all
> > or most races are above that par.
> > Course manager must lodge the track going prior to 6.50am on race
> > day, they cannot change the track rating for the day after that
> > period, only the Stewards or Jockeys can suggest to Stewards a
> > change in track rating. Ergo, there are many ratings that are not
> > correct.
> > Lindsay.
> >
> > From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>] On Behalf Of
> > norsaintpublishing at gmail.com <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>
> > Sent: Monday, 18 June 2018 9:33 PM
> > To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
> > Subject: Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3
> >
> > [
> https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/9657c34d5b2928e9bab33187cf9885d7e3b5e49d.png?u=1035275
> ]
> >
> > Ok thanks Len. Not sure if I'm au fait enough with the concept to
> > come up with anything so sophisticated as an algorithm. If I do,
> > you'll be my first port of call.
> > Did fiddle around with ideas by Gavin Haynes a few year's ago but
> > his stats must be outdated by now.
> > For some reason all the replies have come through aggregated which
> > makes replying damned confusing.
> >
> >
> >
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> > 18/06/18, 21:27:22
> >
> >
> > On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 9:26 PM norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com><mailto:
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>>
> > <norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com><mailto:
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>>> wrote:
> > [
> https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/f80b1de6fd98147d79908191acc60d56e7480a95.png?u=1035275
> ]
> > G'day Mike,
> > ? ? ? ? Thanks for the suggestion. I got that email too? but had
> > forgotten all about it. Must be an age thing.
> >
> >
> >
> > [Mailtrack]<
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> > 18/06/18, 21:24:56
> >
> >
> > On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 8:59 PM <racing-request at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing-request at ausrace.com><mailto:
> racing-request at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing-request at ausrace.com>>> wrote:
> > Send Racing mailing list submissions to
> > racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com><mailto:racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> >
> > To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit
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> > <mailto:racing-request at ausrace.com><mailto:
> racing-request at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing-request at ausrace.com>>
> >
> > You can reach the person managing the list at
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> > <mailto:racing-owner at ausrace.com><mailto:racing-owner at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing-owner at ausrace.com>>
> >
> > When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific
> > than "Re: Contents of Racing digest..."
> >
> >
> > Today's Topics:
> >
> > ? ?1. Par times (norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com><mailto:
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>>)
> > ? ?2. Re: Par times (mikemcbain at tpg.com.au
> > <mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au><mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au
> > <mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au>>)
> > ? ?3. Re: Par times (L.B.Loveday)
> > ? ?4. Re: Par times (Tony Moffat)
> >
> >
> >
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> >
> > Message: 1
> > Date: Sun, 17 Jun 2018 17:34:08 +1000
> > From: "norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com><mailto:
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>>"
> > <norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com><mailto:
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>>>
> > To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com><mailto:racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>>
> > Subject: [AusRace] Par times
> > Message-ID:
> > ? ? ? ?
> > <CAJfP4b2LkbzL_iqGSn9K+zgy6mwLw1POCwgUSY+pfzH2=rSqgg at mail.gmail.com
> > <mailto:rSqgg at mail.gmail.com><mailto:rSqgg at mail.gmail.com
> > <mailto:rSqgg at mail.gmail.com>>>
> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
> >
> > Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?
> >
> >
> > [image: Mailtrack]
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> > 17/06/18,
> > 17:33:07
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> > ------------------------------
> >
> > Message: 2
> > Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:03:10 +1000
> > From: <mikemcbain at tpg.com.au
> > <mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au><mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au
> > <mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au>>>
> > To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com><mailto:racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>>
> > Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times
> > Message-ID: <001f01d406a0$20e59d80$62b0d880$@tpg.com.au
> > <http://tpg.com.au><http://tpg.com.au>>
> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
> >
> > Norsaint
> >
> >
> >
> > Neale Yardley recently made the following comment in an email?.
> >
> >
> >
> > ?Again my thanks go to Steven Angelides from PPFA for providing
> > the par times. Steven is back in Australia from Hong Kong and is
> > touring Australia if anyone would like to catch up with him (he is
> > happy to talk about Bet Selector, PPFA, Hong Kong or anything else
> > racing related). Venues and dates are listed below but please note
> > Steven has a new mobile number which is 0413164550. His email is
> > still the same viz <mailto:stavros at wn.com.au
> > <mailto:stavros at wn.com.au><mailto:stavros at wn.com.au
> > <mailto:stavros at wn.com.au>>> stavros at wn.com.au
> > <mailto:stavros at wn.com.au><mailto:stavros at wn.com.au
> > <mailto:stavros at wn.com.au>>?
> >
> >
> >
> > Might be worth your while asking Steven?
> >
> >
> >
> > Mike.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com><mailto:
> racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>>> On Behalf Of
> > norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com><mailto:
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>>
> > Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 17:34
> > To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com><mailto:racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>>
> > Subject: [AusRace] Par times
> >
> >
> >
> > ?
> > <
> https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275
> >
> >
> >
> > Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ?<
> https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&
> >
> >
> > Sender notified by
> > ?<
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> > Mailtrack 17/06/18, 17:33:07
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> > ------------------------------
> >
> > Message: 3
> > Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:49:07 +1000
> > From: "L.B.Loveday" <lloveday at ozemail.com.au
> > <mailto:lloveday at ozemail.com.au><mailto:lloveday at ozemail.com.au
> > <mailto:lloveday at ozemail.com.au>>>
> > To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com><mailto:racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>>
> > Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times
> > Message-ID: <004701d406a6$8ec2dce0$ac4896a0$@ozemail.com.au
> > <http://ozemail.com.au><http://ozemail.com.au>>
> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
> >
> > Nick,
> >
> >
> >
> > "Par times" is, to me, a nebulous term - they can be calculated in
> > various ways, times are affected by track condition (not only on
> > the day, but by permanent upgrades such as at Gawler), rail
> > positioning, wind direction, riding tactics, in-race mishaps such
> > as a fall, the class of horses, whether there are zero, one, two?
> > "natural" leaders and whether they vie for the lead, weight
> > conditions??
> >
> >
> >
> > So I never consider them, but I do have a database of every
> > Australian race for the past 20+ years,? including:
> >
> >
> >
> > Date,
> >
> > Course,
> >
> > Distance,
> >
> > Class,
> >
> > Limit Weight,
> >
> > Weight carried by placegetters,
> >
> > Condition,
> >
> > No of starters,
> >
> > Prizemoney,
> >
> > and of course Time
> >
> >
> >
> > You determine an algorithm for calculating par times and I'll
> > write a program and send you the results; otherwise you are just
> > relying on someone else's methodology, almost certainly without
> > knowing the basis of his determinations.
> >
> >
> >
> > LBL
> >
> >
> >
> > From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com><mailto:
> racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>>> On Behalf Of
> > norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com><mailto:
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>>
> > Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 5:34 PM
> > To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com><mailto:racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>>
> > Subject: [AusRace] Par times
> >
> >
> >
> > ?
> > <
> https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275
> >
> >
> >
> > Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ?<
> https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&
> >
> >
> > Sender notified by
> > ?<
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> > Mailtrack 17/06/18, 17:33:07
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> > ------------------------------
> >
> > Message: 4
> > Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 18:58:56 +0800
> > From: "Tony Moffat" <tonymoffat at bigpond.com
> > <mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com><mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com
> > <mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com>>>
> > To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com><mailto:racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>>
> > Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times
> > Message-ID: <000001d406f3$5b558d60$1200a820$@bigpond.com
> > <http://bigpond.com><http://bigpond.com>>
> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
> >
> > Saintly ? I don?t know if the other mail made it through ? it was big
> >
> > Is this the type of info you need?
> >
> > Who does this?
> >
> > Cheers
> >
> > Tony
> >
> >
> >
> > Ball a rat
> >
> > 900 (firm) 51.8
> >
> > 900 (good) 52.5
> >
> > 900 (soft) 53.4
> >
> > 900 (heavy) 54.6
> >
> > 1000 (firm) 56.5
> >
> > 1000 (good) 57.9
> >
> > 1000 (soft) 59.1
> >
> > 1000 (heavy) 1.0.7
> >
> > 1100 (firm) 1.2.4
> >
> > 1100 (good) 1.3.9
> >
> > 1100 (soft) 1.5.7
> >
> > 1100 (heavy) 1.7.3
> >
> > 1200 (firm) 1.9.1
> >
> > 1200 (good) 1.10.3
> >
> > 1200 (soft) 1.12.0
> >
> > 1200 (heavy) 1.13.1
> >
> > 1400 (firm) 1.23.2
> >
> > 1400 (good) 1.24.5
> >
> > 1400 (soft) 1.26.3
> >
> > 1400 (heavy) 1.28.2
> >
> > 1500 (firm) 1.31.3
> >
> > 1500 (good) 1.32.6
> >
> > 1500 (soft) 1.34.3
> >
> > 1500 (heavy) 1.36.5
> >
> > 1600 (firm) 1.37.1
> >
> > 1600 (good) 1.37.8
> >
> > 1600 (soft) 1.40.0
> >
> > 1600 (heavy) 1.42.5
> >
> > 2000 (firm) 2.3.8
> >
> > 2000 (good) 2.6.1
> >
> > 2000 (soft) 2.7.7
> >
> > 2000 (heavy) 2.10.9
> >
> > 2200 (firm) 2.14.8
> >
> > 2200 (good) 2.17.7
> >
> > 2200 (soft) 2.20.6
> >
> > 2200 (heavy) 2.22.4
> >
> >
> >
> > From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com><mailto:
> racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>>] On Behalf Of
> > norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com><mailto:
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> > <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>>
> > Sent: Sunday, June 17, 2018 3:34 PM
> > To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com><mailto:racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>>
> > Subject: [AusRace] Par times
> >
> >
> >
> > ?
> > <
> https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275
> >
> >
> >
> > Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ?<
> https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&
> >
> >
> > Sender notified by
> > ?<
> https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&
> >
> > Mailtrack 17/06/18, 17:33:07
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ---
> > This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
> > https://www.avg.com
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> >
> > ------------------------------
> >
> > Subject: Digest Footer
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Racing mailing list
> > Racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:Racing at ausrace.com><mailto:Racing at ausrace.com
> > <mailto:Racing at ausrace.com>>
> > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com
> >
> >
> > ------------------------------
> >
> > End of Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3
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> > ------------------------------
> >
> > Subject: Digest Footer
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Racing mailing list
> > Racing at ausrace.com <mailto:Racing at ausrace.com>
> > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com
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> > ------------------------------
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> > End of Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 5
> > *************************************
> >
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Racing mailing list
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> Subject: Digest Footer
>
> _______________________________________________
> Racing mailing list
> Racing at ausrace.com
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