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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Ditto Nick<br>
If you understand time stuff, then....<br>
Your class figure should be some estimation of central
tendency(average/median/whatever) of the speeds.<br>
The speed should be the individual.<br>
They are both the same thing...one the overall, one the average(or
whatever) and that gives you your measuring stick(expectation)<br>
Thus your class figure should also just be a percentage of your
standard time.<br>
For instance G1 at Flemington might be the equivalent of your
standard.<br>
A low standard benchmark race might be only 98% of your standard.<br>
Thus the G1 will be 100<br>
The low one will be 80....or 20 metres per 1000 slower on average<br>
SteveB<br>
<br>
<br>
On 20/06/2018 8:58 AM, <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a> wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAJfP4b3VZxtWd3D8Wjt4rWMp4Vxhk4LpuwU0G9tuiQpuXVx=Tw@mail.gmail.com">
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moz-do-not-send="true" height="0" width="0">Interesting
Lindsay. What about par times for individual classes? And then
somehow relating that to open par times? Does that make sense.
<div>Got to reply to all on one post, such is the manner it
comes through.</div>
<div>Mike, your 81 year old brain is obviously in better shape
than my 60 year old one.</div>
<div>And as for the missing posts re Stradbroke, Andrew, I
didn't get any of them. Not sure what the hell is going on the
list but receiving posts is now a very rare thing. <br>
<br>
<br>
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<div dir="ltr">On Tue, Jun 19, 2018 at 11:42 PM <<a
href="mailto:racing-request@ausrace.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing-request@ausrace.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
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Today's Topics:<br>
<br>
1. Par Times (<a href="mailto:mikemcbain@tpg.com.au"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">mikemcbain@tpg.com.au</a>)<br>
2. Test (Andrew Child)<br>
3. Re: Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3 (Race Stats)<br>
<br>
<br>
----------------------------------------------------------------------<br>
<br>
Message: 1<br>
Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2018 09:05:10 +1000<br>
From: <<a href="mailto:mikemcbain@tpg.com.au"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">mikemcbain@tpg.com.au</a>><br>
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: [AusRace] Par Times<br>
Message-ID: <000601d40758$cf3c0280$6db40780$@<a
href="http://tpg.com.au" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">tpg.com.au</a>><br>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"<br>
<br>
Norsaint<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Cannot be an ?age thing? or my 81yo brain would have long
forgotten it too.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Mike.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
G'day Mike,<br>
<br>
Thanks for the suggestion. I got that email too but
had forgotten all about it. Must be an age thing.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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------------------------------<br>
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Message: 2<br>
Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2018 19:45:14 +1000<br>
From: Andrew Child <<a href="mailto:awchildmelb@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">awchildmelb@gmail.com</a>><br>
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a
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Subject: [AusRace] Test<br>
Message-ID: <<a
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<br>
I seem to be missing stuff, according to the June archive -
Len's post, <br>
and four of Tony's re Stradbroke!<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
------------------------------<br>
<br>
Message: 3<br>
Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2018 13:41:12 +0000<br>
From: Race Stats <<a href="mailto:RaceStats@hotmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">RaceStats@hotmail.com</a>><br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3<br>
Message-ID:<br>
<<a
href="mailto:MEAPR01MB32057578EF89B5FB7E5005B1BB700@MEAPR01MB3205.ausprd01.prod.outlook.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">MEAPR01MB32057578EF89B5FB7E5005B1BB700@MEAPR01MB3205.ausprd01.prod.outlook.com</a>><br>
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Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"<br>
<br>
Hi Nick,<br>
Regarding Len?s suggestions regarding par times, I thought I?d
give you a little bit of extra information.<br>
Par times by themselves are pretty nebulous as Len suggests.<br>
If you?re familiar with Excel, here is my recommendation.<br>
Often you will find that track record times are often on many
races one day at a venue, so obviously the track is faster
than the rating.<br>
Forget Class records, they mean very little overall.<br>
Take the race times and dissect them into overall time, final
sectional time and then race time minus sectional time, this
will give you the pace time.<br>
You MUST have a par time for every going condition not just
Soft, you need Soft5, Soft6, Soft7.<br>
Look at the top horses that won with fast race time, then fast
last sectional, then pace time.<br>
You?ll soon see the impact of what is useful and what is not.<br>
You?ll also see where the track rating is obviously wrong when
all or most races are above that par.<br>
Course manager must lodge the track going prior to 6.50am on
race day, they cannot change the track rating for the day
after that period, only the Stewards or Jockeys can suggest to
Stewards a change in track rating. Ergo, there are many
ratings that are not correct.<br>
Lindsay.<br>
<br>
From: Racing [mailto:<a
href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] On
Behalf Of <a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><br>
Sent: Monday, 18 June 2018 9:33 PM<br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List<br>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3<br>
<br>
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<br>
Ok thanks Len. Not sure if I'm au fait enough with the concept
to come up with anything so sophisticated as an algorithm. If
I do, you'll be my first port of call.<br>
Did fiddle around with ideas by Gavin Haynes a few year's ago
but his stats must be outdated by now.<br>
For some reason all the replies have come through aggregated
which makes replying damned confusing.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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18/06/18, 21:27:22<br>
<br>
<br>
On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 9:26 PM <a
href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>>
<<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><mailto:<a
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wrote:<br>
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G'day Mike,<br>
Thanks for the suggestion. I got that email too but
had forgotten all about it. Must be an age thing.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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18/06/18, 21:24:56<br>
<br>
<br>
On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 8:59 PM <<a
href="mailto:racing-request@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing-request@ausrace.com</a><mailto:<a
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wrote:<br>
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When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more
specific<br>
than "Re: Contents of Racing digest..."<br>
<br>
<br>
Today's Topics:<br>
<br>
1. Par times (<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>>)<br>
2. Re: Par times (<a href="mailto:mikemcbain@tpg.com.au"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">mikemcbain@tpg.com.au</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:mikemcbain@tpg.com.au" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">mikemcbain@tpg.com.au</a>>)<br>
3. Re: Par times (L.B.Loveday)<br>
4. Re: Par times (Tony Moffat)<br>
<br>
<br>
----------------------------------------------------------------------<br>
<br>
Message: 1<br>
Date: Sun, 17 Jun 2018 17:34:08 +1000<br>
From: "<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>>"
<<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>>><br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a>>><br>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times<br>
Message-ID:<br>
<CAJfP4b2LkbzL_iqGSn9K+zgy6mwLw1POCwgUSY+pfzH2=<a
href="mailto:rSqgg@mail.gmail.com" target="_blank"
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<br>
Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?<br>
<br>
<br>
[image: Mailtrack]<br>
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17/06/18,<br>
17:33:07<br>
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------------------------------<br>
<br>
Message: 2<br>
Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:03:10 +1000<br>
From: <<a href="mailto:mikemcbain@tpg.com.au"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">mikemcbain@tpg.com.au</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:mikemcbain@tpg.com.au" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">mikemcbain@tpg.com.au</a>>><br>
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a><mailto:<a
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Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times<br>
Message-ID: <001f01d406a0$20e59d80$62b0d880$@<a
href="http://tpg.com.au" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">tpg.com.au</a><<a
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Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"<br>
<br>
Norsaint<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Neale Yardley recently made the following comment in an
email?.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
?Again my thanks go to Steven Angelides from PPFA for
providing the par times. Steven is back in Australia from Hong
Kong and is touring Australia if anyone would like to catch up
with him (he is happy to talk about Bet Selector, PPFA, Hong
Kong or anything else racing related). Venues and dates are
listed below but please note Steven has a new mobile number
which is 0413164550. His email is still the same viz
<mailto:<a href="mailto:stavros@wn.com.au" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">stavros@wn.com.au</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:stavros@wn.com.au" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">stavros@wn.com.au</a>>> <a
href="mailto:stavros@wn.com.au" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">stavros@wn.com.au</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:stavros@wn.com.au" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">stavros@wn.com.au</a>>?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Might be worth your while asking Steven?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Mike.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Racing <<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a><mailto:<a
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On Behalf Of <a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
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href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>><br>
Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 17:34<br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a>>><br>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<<a
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<br>
<br>
Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<<a
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Mailtrack 17/06/18, 17:33:07<br>
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<br>
Message: 3<br>
Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:49:07 +1000<br>
From: "L.B.Loveday" <<a
href="mailto:lloveday@ozemail.com.au" target="_blank"
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href="mailto:lloveday@ozemail.com.au" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">lloveday@ozemail.com.au</a>>><br>
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <<a
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Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times<br>
Message-ID: <004701d406a6$8ec2dce0$ac4896a0$@<a
href="http://ozemail.com.au" rel="noreferrer"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">ozemail.com.au</a><<a
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Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"<br>
<br>
Nick,<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
"Par times" is, to me, a nebulous term - they can be
calculated in various ways, times are affected by track
condition (not only on the day, but by permanent upgrades such
as at Gawler), rail positioning, wind direction, riding
tactics, in-race mishaps such as a fall, the class of horses,
whether there are zero, one, two? "natural" leaders and
whether they vie for the lead, weight conditions??<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
So I never consider them, but I do have a database of every
Australian race for the past 20+ years, including:<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Date,<br>
<br>
Course,<br>
<br>
Distance,<br>
<br>
Class,<br>
<br>
Limit Weight,<br>
<br>
Weight carried by placegetters,<br>
<br>
Condition,<br>
<br>
No of starters,<br>
<br>
Prizemoney,<br>
<br>
and of course Time<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
You determine an algorithm for calculating par times and I'll
write a program and send you the results; otherwise you are
just relying on someone else's methodology, almost certainly
without knowing the basis of his determinations.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
LBL<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Racing <<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>>>
On Behalf Of <a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>><br>
Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 5:34 PM<br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a><mailto:<a
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moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a>>><br>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<<a
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<br>
<br>
Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<<a
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Mailtrack 17/06/18, 17:33:07<br>
<br>
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<br>
<br>
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Message: 4<br>
Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 18:58:56 +0800<br>
From: "Tony Moffat" <<a
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To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <<a
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Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times<br>
Message-ID: <000001d406f3$5b558d60$1200a820$@<a
href="http://bigpond.com" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank"
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<br>
Saintly ? I don?t know if the other mail made it through ? it
was big<br>
<br>
Is this the type of info you need?<br>
<br>
Who does this?<br>
<br>
Cheers<br>
<br>
Tony<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Ball a rat<br>
<br>
900 (firm) 51.8<br>
<br>
900 (good) 52.5<br>
<br>
900 (soft) 53.4<br>
<br>
900 (heavy) 54.6<br>
<br>
1000 (firm) 56.5<br>
<br>
1000 (good) 57.9<br>
<br>
1000 (soft) 59.1<br>
<br>
1000 (heavy) 1.0.7<br>
<br>
1100 (firm) 1.2.4<br>
<br>
1100 (good) 1.3.9<br>
<br>
1100 (soft) 1.5.7<br>
<br>
1100 (heavy) 1.7.3<br>
<br>
1200 (firm) 1.9.1<br>
<br>
1200 (good) 1.10.3<br>
<br>
1200 (soft) 1.12.0<br>
<br>
1200 (heavy) 1.13.1<br>
<br>
1400 (firm) 1.23.2<br>
<br>
1400 (good) 1.24.5<br>
<br>
1400 (soft) 1.26.3<br>
<br>
1400 (heavy) 1.28.2<br>
<br>
1500 (firm) 1.31.3<br>
<br>
1500 (good) 1.32.6<br>
<br>
1500 (soft) 1.34.3<br>
<br>
1500 (heavy) 1.36.5<br>
<br>
1600 (firm) 1.37.1<br>
<br>
1600 (good) 1.37.8<br>
<br>
1600 (soft) 1.40.0<br>
<br>
1600 (heavy) 1.42.5<br>
<br>
2000 (firm) 2.3.8<br>
<br>
2000 (good) 2.6.1<br>
<br>
2000 (soft) 2.7.7<br>
<br>
2000 (heavy) 2.10.9<br>
<br>
2200 (firm) 2.14.8<br>
<br>
2200 (good) 2.17.7<br>
<br>
2200 (soft) 2.20.6<br>
<br>
2200 (heavy) 2.22.4<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Racing [mailto:<a
href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a><mailto:<a
href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>>]
On Behalf Of <a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
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Sent: Sunday, June 17, 2018 3:34 PM<br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a
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Subject: [AusRace] Par times<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<<a
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<br>
<br>
Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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Mailtrack 17/06/18, 17:33:07<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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