[AusRace] The Principle of Maximum Confusion - a system

[Tony Moffat]

Or is it? - Some of the following is based on the writings of James
Quinn (Morrow & Co. New York) who quotes the work of Burton Fabricand
(see Science of Winning)

 

The principle derives from the proposition that the betting public
scores its well recorded 9 percent loss on favourites by over betting
most and under betting the others.

 

The derivative clauses for choosing a favourite(F) are known to all
bettors. It is often the morning line F and its rank is never
challenged although its price and those dividends of the other runners
are modified. There is often a strata of hopefuls, runners who can
with prices within the sphere of runner numbers/3 and as these appear
to be value, they have similar form attributes to the F for instance,
they can be overbet. If, when, all runners are examined every which
way and their probabilities calculated the F may be under bet in this
circumstance. This is the Principle of Maximum Confusion. Somebody,
somewhere, or now, more likely, software, has determined the name of
the F for us, the commencement.

 

That others overtake the early F, when nothing else seems to have
occurred shows the possession of information, information strength,
and the application of the Principal.

 

This holds that the public is most likely to underestimate the true
winning probabilities of favourites in races where the
past-performance record of the F is highly similar to one or more
other horses. The rational for the principle is the crowds
handicapping; that is, there must be some reason(s) not immediately
obvious for one horse to be made favourite, notwithstanding its
similarity to other horses, using the revealed information as a
guideline( morning line, form line, etc.) The F is under bet as a
result and the Principal confusion is held to be maximal if enough
other runners look enough like the favourite to make the F a good bet
now. 

 

As written before if a runner looks superior in every fundamental
respect, it is certain its outstanding form record will not be lost on
the betting public. Should the horse be bet then? No say the authors,
it will be overbet, and value is being lost otherwise, or at least
properly bet in respect of the F, and no chance of profit long term,
and the best result will be 9 per cent loss, again long term. That's
depressing.

 

To reverse engineer the Principle, thus assuring ourselves profit of
10 per cent or more, it is necessary to recognise those races where
the F is so similar to other contenders that confusion arises and
value arrives. Fabricand, through Quinn, Quirin, and others has
devised seven rules comprising the definition of similarity, as well
as the probability formula, for betting purposes, the whole reason for
starting this.

 

To wit, the F is similar to another horse if:

 

1 Both show a race within the past 29 days

2 Both have raced at today's track or neither has

3 The favourite's last race was at a class level equal to or lower
than the similar horse (different)

4 There is less than 9 pound weight shift between two horses off their
latest races.

5 Both are male, or the F is female

6 Both last start finishes were the same, greatly similar, or the F
last race finish was slightly inferior to the other horses(different)

7 For sprints, the F is a sprinter in its past, for routes the F is a
router (last three races were routes) or is a sprinter who won its
last run.

 

All seven rules of similarity must be resolved.

 

All races are susceptible to the Principle, the public is known to
estimate the winning probabilities of F regardless of the class of the
race.

 

Handicappers that have isolated betting favourites that are similar to
other horses can be assured the betting public are maximally confused
and can proceed to bet on the F.

 

ROBERTA sought to find value around the F, hopefully to score in the
66 per cent of races that the F does not feature, it may place
however. 

 

The Principle of Maximum Confusion is to isolate the F, identify it's
attributes, and determine if it can be value bet.

 

There is more perhaps

 

Cheers

 

Tony

 



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