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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Or is it? – Some of the following is based on the writings of James Quinn (Morrow & Co. New York) who quotes the work of Burton Fabricand (see Science of Winning)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>The principle derives from the proposition that the betting public scores its well recorded 9 percent loss on favourites by over betting most and under betting the others.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>The derivative clauses for choosing a favourite(F) are known to all bettors. It is often the morning line F and its rank is never challenged although its price and those dividends of the other runners are modified. There is often a strata of hopefuls, runners who can with prices within the sphere of runner numbers/3 and as these appear to be value, they have similar form attributes to the F for instance, they can be overbet. If, when, all runners are examined every which way and their probabilities calculated the F may be under bet in this circumstance. This is the Principle of Maximum Confusion. Somebody, somewhere, or now, more likely, software, has determined the name of the F for us, the commencement.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'> That others overtake the early F, when nothing else seems to have occurred shows the possession of information, information strength, and the application of the Principal.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>This holds that the public is most likely to underestimate the true winning probabilities of favourites in races where the past-performance record of the F is highly similar to one or more other horses. The rational for the principle is the crowds handicapping; that is, there must be some reason(s) not immediately obvious for one horse to be made favourite, notwithstanding its similarity to other horses, using the revealed information as a guideline( morning line, form line, etc.) The F is under bet as a result and the Principal confusion is held to be maximal if enough other runners look enough like the favourite to make the F a good bet now. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>As written before if a runner looks superior in every fundamental respect, it is certain its outstanding form record will not be lost on the betting public. Should the horse be bet then? No say the authors, it will be overbet, and value is being lost otherwise, or at least properly bet in respect of the F, and no chance of profit long term, and the best result will be 9 per cent loss, again long term. That’s depressing.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>To reverse engineer the Principle, thus assuring ourselves profit of 10 per cent or more, it is necessary to recognise those races where the F is so similar to other contenders that confusion arises and value arrives. Fabricand, through Quinn, Quirin, and others has devised seven rules comprising the definition of similarity, as well as the probability formula, for betting purposes, the whole reason for starting this.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>To wit, the F is similar to another horse if:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>1 Both show a race within the past 29 days<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>2 Both have raced at today’s track or neither has<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>3 The favourite’s last race was at a class level equal to or lower than the similar horse (different)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>4 There is less than 9 pound weight shift between two horses off their latest races.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>5 Both are male, or the F is female<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>6 Both last start finishes were the same, greatly similar, or the F last race finish was slightly inferior to the other horses(different)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>7 For sprints, the F is a sprinter in its past, for routes the F is a router (last three races were routes) or is a sprinter who won its last run.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>All seven rules of similarity must be resolved.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>All races are susceptible to the Principle, the public is known to estimate the winning probabilities of F regardless of the class of the race.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Handicappers that have isolated betting favourites that are similar to other horses can be assured the betting public are maximally confused and can proceed to bet on the F.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>ROBERTA sought to find value around the F, hopefully to score in the 66 per cent of races that the F does not feature, it may place however. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>The Principle of Maximum Confusion is to isolate the F, identify it’s attributes, and determine if it can be value bet.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>There is more perhaps<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div id="DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2"><br />
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