[AusRace] Testing the Favourite - a system

[Tony Moffat]

ROBERTA    -    Testing the favourite.

These are probably based on the writing of Quirin (USA) although not
all the topics are discussed here.

Knowles did a similar treatise way back also.

 

The favourite is the shortest priced horse in the field  - obvious.
Its abilities have been talked up and its price talked down but is
that enough. This system suggests you delineate the form around the
favourite then look for others with similar attributes, or items of
form better than the favourite and there may be a runner worth
supporting as a result.

 

Disregarding the favourite, and examining similar runners, those with
attributes to win may takes us onto a different sub-set of runners,
still popular but not hot in the market - that is ROBERTA.

I don't know the story behind the name, but presume it is the first
letters of a phrase of encouragement. Think R>O>T>A or FIGJAM or ASAP.

 

ROBERTA

 

1. Similar finishes - finish position is my interpretation, say 1st
and 3rd, or 2nd and 5th. Determine the finish position of the F last
start and compare that with finish of similar horses.

 

2. All runners are male, or the favourite is female is allowed,
however the similar runners cannot be female. But, in a F&M,
disregard.

 

3. There is less than 4 kilograms (9 pounds - my conversion) between
weights carried. This involves all runners, the F and the similar
horses and my interpretation is 2kg up or two kilograms under the F
weight - which gives the 4 kg spread, anything else exceeds that rule.

 

4. Days since last start not to exceed 29.

 

5. The F has raced at today's track, so too the similar horses - or
neither have. That includes or excludes depending on the
circumstances. The F has raced here, the similar horses also, all
good. The similar horses have not raced here, disregard. The similar
horses have raced here, the F not, eliminate the race!. The F and
similar horses are on new ground, continue exam.

 

6. For sprint distances, the F is a sprinter, so too the similar
horses. For distance races (routes) the F is a distance winner (won
over a distance?), or a sprinter who won its last race.

 

7. The F came from a similar or lower class race last start. The
similar horses also had similar or lower class races last start.

 

It is a bit short on detail and there is nothing to suggest any
previous tests have been done to support the instructions.

Similar finishes - perhaps a finish separation <5 positions.

The favourite female is allowed, otherwise females appear to be on the
outer here.

The runners are required to be involved in racing and this may account
for the 29 day rule.

The F must have raced on the track for the others to be considered,
or, nobody has raced there and the consideration continues.

The sprint and distance rules are familiar.

 

Today at Rosehill 7 - Hiyaam was the choice after 7 others eliminated
-won and paid $13.10

******* Rosehill 8 - Cellarman was the choice, similar attributes -
won and paid $5.90

******* Rosehill 9 - the favourite won off good form, Horse 8 also
qualified but finished down the track

*******Caulfield 9 - the favourite won off good form, other qualifiers
eliminated

*******Caulfield 8 - qualifiers 3,6,7,10,15,17 - the winner 10 paid
$9.30

*******Caulfield 7 - Winner, Shoreham, qualified but was out beyond
$39, it had much better, more, attributes than the F.

Today at Caulfield 6 - Magic Console was the qualifier and placed at
8.30 

 

I may write some more - the favourites for this test, the results,
were after the event.

 

Cheers

 

Tony 

 



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