[AusRace] Synthetic track stats

[Robert Ford]

Steve,

 

Take :


Sire

AW A/E

Turf A/E

Ratio


Royal Academy(USA)

1.02

0.60

1.70

 

The A/E ratio (Achieved over Expected from the Odds) makes Royal Academy’s OK on the synthetic but an underachiever (or over-bet) on the Turf.

The Ration 1.70 shows how much better offspring are on the synthetics than the turf.

 

At the bottom of the list:

 


Mull of Kintyre(USA)

0.52

1.06

0.49

 

Indicates the reverse. Mull of Kintyre’s are very poor on the synthetics but OK on the turf.

 

If there were no difference between synthetics and turf, then the A/E numbers would tend towards being equal.

So RA would tend to be a 0.81 on both surfaces and MOK a 0.79, but they are polar opposites on these surfaces.

 

Breeding, conformation and energy production rates make horses better at different course configurations, going, distances , surface, humidity and pace.

You can produce A/E tables for each of those factors. I have just given the example for what you asked.

What is valid for UK courses won’t be so valid for Aus courses – due to the huge differences in conditions.

 

We find it very useful for estimating how a horse might perform first time out on AW or turf after only racing on the other one of those surfaces.

Horses are often over or under-bet in such circumstances.

 

Robert

 

 

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of swallis at bigpond.com.au
Sent: 16 March 2017 02:46
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Synthetic track stats

 

Robert,

 

You might have to clarify that for me if you can. To me it seems half the sires have better synthetic returns and the other half better turf returns. How does that show a bias for or against either surface?  

 

regards,

 

Steve

 

 

From: Robert Ford <mailto:kernow.fords at ntlworld.com>  

Sent: Thursday, March 16, 2017 10:34 AM

To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>  

Subject: Re: [AusRace] Synthetic track stats

 

Steve W

 

If you look at the sires who dominate on turf and Synthetic (called all-weather in UK) there are pronounced differences.

The synthetics are far slower, have less traction, have some kickback and are more stamina requiring particularly as they age or rubber /coatings turns to dust/sand particles

 

 


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