[AusRace] Synthetic track stats

[swallis at bigpond.com.au]

Thanks Robert,

I think that’s taking the science of Betology further than I want to go as an Excel hobbyist / Saturday peanuts punter. I’m not even sure we have those sort of statistics readily available.

Your comments though confirm my suspicion that Synthetics and Good shouldn’t be lumped together – a bit like tennis players on grass vs clay.

At the moment it’s not hugely important, as we have few synthetic tracks and none in Metropolitan areas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in Brisbane and Sydney though, where there are many rain affected meetings. 

Anyway, thanks again for your input.

Regards

steve

From: Robert Ford 
Sent: Friday, March 17, 2017 12:30 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' 
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Synthetic track stats

Steve,

 

Take :

      Sire
     AW A/E
     Turf A/E
     Ratio
     
      Royal Academy(USA)
     1.02
     0.60
     1.70
     

 

The A/E ratio (Achieved over Expected from the Odds) makes Royal Academy’s OK on the synthetic but an underachiever (or over-bet) on the Turf.

The Ration 1.70 shows how much better offspring are on the synthetics than the turf.

 

At the bottom of the list:

 

      Mull of Kintyre(USA)
     0.52
     1.06
     0.49
     

 

Indicates the reverse. Mull of Kintyre’s are very poor on the synthetics but OK on the turf.

 

If there were no difference between synthetics and turf, then the A/E numbers would tend towards being equal.

So RA would tend to be a 0.81 on both surfaces and MOK a 0.79, but they are polar opposites on these surfaces.

 

Breeding, conformation and energy production rates make horses better at different course configurations, going, distances , surface, humidity and pace.

You can produce A/E tables for each of those factors. I have just given the example for what you asked.

What is valid for UK courses won’t be so valid for Aus courses – due to the huge differences in conditions.

 

We find it very useful for estimating how a horse might perform first time out on AW or turf after only racing on the other one of those surfaces.

Horses are often over or under-bet in such circumstances.

 

Robert

 


---
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://ausrace.com/pipermail/racing_ausrace.com/attachments/20170317/483823af/attachment.html>