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<DIV>Thanks Robert,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I think that’s taking the science of Betology further than I want to go as
an Excel hobbyist / Saturday peanuts punter. I’m not even sure we have those
sort of statistics readily available.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Your comments though confirm my suspicion that Synthetics and Good
shouldn’t be lumped together – a bit like tennis players on grass vs clay.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>At the moment it’s not hugely important, as we have few synthetic tracks
and none in Metropolitan areas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in Brisbane
and Sydney though, where there are many rain affected meetings. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Anyway, thanks again for your input.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Regards</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>steve</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV
style='FONT-SIZE: small; TEXT-DECORATION: none; FONT-FAMILY: "Calibri"; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: #000000; FONT-STYLE: normal; DISPLAY: inline'><B>From:</B>
<A title=kernow.fords@ntlworld.com
href="mailto:kernow.fords@ntlworld.com">Robert Ford</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt tahoma">
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #f5f5f5">
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, March 17, 2017 12:30 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=racing@ausrace.com
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">'AusRace Racing Discussion List'</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [AusRace] Synthetic track stats</DIV></DIV></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></DIV>
<DIV
style='FONT-SIZE: small; TEXT-DECORATION: none; FONT-FAMILY: "Calibri"; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: #000000; FONT-STYLE: normal; DISPLAY: inline'>
<DIV class=WordSection1>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">Steve,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d"><o:p></o:p></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">Take :<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; COLOR: #000000"
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<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD
style="BORDER-TOP: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; WIDTH: 102.9pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4pt; PADDING-TOP: 4pt; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BORDER-LEFT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt"
vAlign=top width=137>
<P class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; BACKGROUND: #f4f8fb; COLOR: #cbcbcb'>Sire</SPAN></B><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; COLOR: #cbcbcb'><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></TD>
<TD
style="BORDER-TOP: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4pt; PADDING-TOP: 4pt; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt"
vAlign=top width=64>
<P class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; BACKGROUND: #f4f8fb; COLOR: #cbcbcb'>AW
A/E</SPAN></B><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; COLOR: #cbcbcb'><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></TD>
<TD
style="BORDER-TOP: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4pt; PADDING-TOP: 4pt; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt"
vAlign=top width=66>
<P class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; BACKGROUND: #f4f8fb; COLOR: #cbcbcb'>Turf
A/E</SPAN></B><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; COLOR: #cbcbcb'><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></TD>
<TD
style="BORDER-TOP: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; WIDTH: 50.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4pt; PADDING-TOP: 4pt; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt"
vAlign=top width=67>
<P class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; BACKGROUND: #f4f8fb; COLOR: #cbcbcb'>Ratio</SPAN></B><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; COLOR: #cbcbcb'><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD
style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; WIDTH: 102.9pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4pt; PADDING-TOP: 4pt; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BORDER-LEFT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt"
vAlign=top width=137>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; BACKGROUND: #f4f8fb'>Royal
Academy(USA)</SPAN><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></TD>
<TD
style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4pt; PADDING-TOP: 4pt; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt"
vAlign=top width=64>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; BACKGROUND: #f4f8fb'>1.02</SPAN><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></TD>
<TD
style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4pt; PADDING-TOP: 4pt; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt"
vAlign=top width=66>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; BACKGROUND: #f4f8fb'>0.60</SPAN><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></TD>
<TD
style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; WIDTH: 50.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4pt; PADDING-TOP: 4pt; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt"
vAlign=top width=67>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; BACKGROUND: #f4f8fb'>1.70</SPAN><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d"><o:p></o:p></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">The A/E ratio (<B>A</B>chieved
over <B>E</B>xpected from the Odds) makes Royal Academy’s OK on the synthetic
but an underachiever (or over-bet) on the Turf.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">The Ration 1.70 shows how much
better offspring are on the synthetics than the turf.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d"><o:p></o:p></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">At the bottom of the
list:<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d"><o:p></o:p></SPAN> </P>
<TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; COLOR: #000000"
cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD
style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; WIDTH: 102.9pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4pt; PADDING-TOP: 4pt; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BORDER-LEFT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt"
vAlign=top width=137>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; BACKGROUND: #f4f8fb'>Mull
of Kintyre(USA)</SPAN><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></TD>
<TD
style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4pt; PADDING-TOP: 4pt; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt"
vAlign=top width=64>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; BACKGROUND: #f4f8fb'>0.52</SPAN><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></TD>
<TD
style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; WIDTH: 49.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4pt; PADDING-TOP: 4pt; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt"
vAlign=top width=66>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; BACKGROUND: #f4f8fb'>1.06</SPAN><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></TD>
<TD
style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; WIDTH: 50.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #a3a3a3 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 4pt; PADDING-TOP: 4pt; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt"
vAlign=top width=67>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"; BACKGROUND: #f4f8fb'>0.49</SPAN><SPAN
style='FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d"><o:p></o:p></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">Indicates the reverse. Mull of
Kintyre’s are very poor on the synthetics but OK on the
turf.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d"><o:p></o:p></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">If there were no difference
between synthetics and turf, then the A/E numbers would tend towards being
equal.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">So RA would tend to be a 0.81 on
both surfaces and MOK a 0.79, but they are polar opposites on these
surfaces.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d"><o:p></o:p></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">Breeding, conformation and
energy production rates make horses better at different course configurations,
going, distances , surface, humidity and pace.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">You can produce A/E tables for
each of those factors. I have just given the example for what you
asked.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">What is valid for UK courses
won’t be so valid for Aus courses – due to the huge differences in
conditions.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d"><o:p></o:p></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">We find it very useful for
estimating how a horse might perform first time out on AW or turf after only
racing on the other one of those surfaces.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">Horses are often over or
under-bet in such circumstances.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d"><o:p></o:p></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="COLOR: #1f497d">Robert<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="COLOR: #1f497d"><o:p></o:p></SPAN> </P></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV><br />
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