<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:dt="uuid:C2F41010-65B3-11d1-A29F-00AA00C14882" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 14 (filtered medium)"><!--[if !mso]><style>v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
o\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
w\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
</style><![endif]--><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Tahoma;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Verdana;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0cm;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
p.MsoPlainText, li.MsoPlainText, div.MsoPlainText
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"Plain Text Char";
margin:0cm;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";}
p
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0cm;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0cm;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
p.MsoAcetate, li.MsoAcetate, div.MsoAcetate
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"Balloon Text Char";
margin:0cm;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:8.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";}
p.MsoListParagraph, li.MsoListParagraph, div.MsoListParagraph
{mso-style-priority:34;
margin-top:0cm;
margin-right:0cm;
margin-bottom:0cm;
margin-left:36.0pt;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";}
span.PlainTextChar
{mso-style-name:"Plain Text Char";
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"Plain Text";
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";}
span.BalloonTextChar
{mso-style-name:"Balloon Text Char";
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"Balloon Text";
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";}
span.EmailStyle23
{mso-style-type:personal;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D;}
span.apple-converted-space
{mso-style-name:apple-converted-space;}
span.EmailStyle25
{mso-style-type:personal;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D;}
span.EmailStyle26
{mso-style-type:personal;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D;}
span.EmailStyle27
{mso-style-type:personal;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D;}
span.EmailStyle28
{mso-style-type:personal;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D;}
span.EmailStyle29
{mso-style-type:personal;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D;}
span.EmailStyle30
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;}
@page WordSection1
{size:612.0pt 792.0pt;
margin:72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-GB link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Steve,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Take :<o:p></o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 style='border-collapse:collapse'><tr><td width=137 valign=top style='width:102.9pt;border:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#CBCBCB;background:#F4F8FB'>Sire</span></b><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#CBCBCB'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=64 valign=top style='width:48.0pt;border:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;border-left:none;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#CBCBCB;background:#F4F8FB'>AW A/E</span></b><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#CBCBCB'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=66 valign=top style='width:49.4pt;border:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;border-left:none;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#CBCBCB;background:#F4F8FB'>Turf A/E</span></b><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#CBCBCB'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=67 valign=top style='width:50.2pt;border:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;border-left:none;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#CBCBCB;background:#F4F8FB'>Ratio</span></b><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#CBCBCB'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td width=137 valign=top style='width:102.9pt;border:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;border-top:none;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";background:#F4F8FB'>Royal Academy(USA)</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=64 valign=top style='width:48.0pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;border-right:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";background:#F4F8FB'>1.02</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=66 valign=top style='width:49.4pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;border-right:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";background:#F4F8FB'>0.60</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=67 valign=top style='width:50.2pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;border-right:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";background:#F4F8FB'>1.70</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>The A/E ratio (<b>A</b>chieved over <b>E</b>xpected from the Odds) makes Royal Academy’s OK on the synthetic but an underachiever (or over-bet) on the Turf.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>The Ration 1.70 shows how much better offspring are on the synthetics than the turf.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>At the bottom of the list:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 style='border-collapse:collapse'><tr><td width=137 valign=top style='width:102.9pt;border:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;border-top:none;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";background:#F4F8FB'>Mull of Kintyre(USA)</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=64 valign=top style='width:48.0pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;border-right:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";background:#F4F8FB'>0.52</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=66 valign=top style='width:49.4pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;border-right:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";background:#F4F8FB'>1.06</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=67 valign=top style='width:50.2pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;border-right:solid #A3A3A3 1.0pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";background:#F4F8FB'>0.49</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Indicates the reverse. Mull of Kintyre’s are very poor on the synthetics but OK on the turf.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>If there were no difference between synthetics and turf, then the A/E numbers would tend towards being equal.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>So RA would tend to be a 0.81 on both surfaces and MOK a 0.79, but they are polar opposites on these surfaces.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Breeding, conformation and energy production rates make horses better at different course configurations, going, distances , surface, humidity and pace.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>You can produce A/E tables for each of those factors. I have just given the example for what you asked.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>What is valid for UK courses won’t be so valid for Aus courses – due to the huge differences in conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>We find it very useful for estimating how a horse might perform first time out on AW or turf after only racing on the other one of those surfaces.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Horses are often over or under-bet in such circumstances.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Robert<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com] <b>On Behalf Of </b>swallis@bigpond.com.au<br><b>Sent:</b> 16 March 2017 02:46<br><b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Synthetic track stats<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Robert,<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>You might have to clarify that for me if you can. To me it seems half the sires have better synthetic returns and the other half better turf returns. How does that show a bias for or against either surface? <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>regards,<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Steve<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:whitesmoke'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black'> <a href="mailto:kernow.fords@ntlworld.com" title="kernow.fords@ntlworld.com">Robert Ford</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:whitesmoke'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black'>Sent:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black'> Thursday, March 16, 2017 10:34 AM<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:whitesmoke'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black'>To:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black'> <a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" title="racing@ausrace.com">'AusRace Racing Discussion List'</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:whitesmoke'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black'>Subject:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black'> Re: [AusRace] Synthetic track stats<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Steve W<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> </span><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>If you look at the sires who dominate on turf and Synthetic (called all-weather in UK) there are pronounced differences.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>The synthetics are far slower, have less traction, have some kickback and are more stamina requiring particularly as they age or rubber /coatings turns to dust/sand particles<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> </span><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=1 cellpadding=0 style='border:none;border-top:solid #D3D4DE 1.0pt'><tr><td width=55 style='width:41.25pt;border:none;padding:9.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><a href="https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='border:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0cm;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=46 height=29 id="_x0000_i1025" src="cid:image001.jpg@01D29E58.0FF327B0" alt="Image removed by sender."></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=470 style='width:352.5pt;border:none;padding:9.0pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:13.5pt'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#41424E'>Virus-free. <a href="https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='color:#4453EA'>www.avast.com</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></body></html>