[AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

Sun Apr 23 12:53:20 AEST 2017

Hi All,

The market once again proved the best guide with the 3 placegetters being in
the Top 5 of the betting. Below is a snapshot from my Race results website
which I have just updated for yesterday's races.

I have also extended the results back to Sept 2012 and now have over 1
million horse race results spanning the last 6 years that you can presently
interrogate for FREE using my Power BI portal.

And you will get a response back from your query within a couple of seconds.
Great stuff from the Microsoft Power BI team.

Cheers,

AN

Nick Aubrey

Tel: +61 (2) 9011 5264 | Mobile: 0403 496 971| Email:
<mailto:nick at nickaubey.net> nick at nickaubey.com 

Punt For Profit  ?  Click below. It's a Not-For-Loss organistion !
 <http://www.puntforprofit.com.au/> 

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Saturday, 22 April 2017 11:29 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

Hello Lindsay.

No I have not priced the runners off this element.

The calculated value is an indicator of race distance strength.

The horse ability over the distance is exposed using this.

It is an overall rating too.

Using values calculated from the early part of the race it is possible to
see the settling process, then mid race capabilities, then the later speeds
and an overall speed.

You get that from times also, but these values have a horse in them, so to
me they are more meaningful.

How accurate are the calculated lengths used. Nobody uses a finish photo and
measures off that although they did and used to. Remember PictureForm?

  You can see a runner go from 4+ to 7+ for an overall 6 something value in
a race.

If you do similar sums for the final 600 or 400 metres then you get some
strong values.

Using the figures as they are, thus not adjusting for assessed finishing
position/lengths, may mean you have removed the effect of the fan, the home
turn, bad luck in running, bias and jockey decision. 

I assume the use of 2.75 metres to represent a horse length is a standard.
It is a value from texts, Mordin is one although there are others who use
2.4m out to 2.75m.

Until we get the length, and the weight, of a runner it will do.

Tony

-----Original Message-----

From: Racing [ <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>
mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats

Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2017 7:46 AM

To: AusRace Racing Discussion List < <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>
racing at ausrace.com>

Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

Hi Tony,

I found your post most interesting.

Do you have a formula for converting the figures to odds.

I'd assume if you just added up the figures and divided by the horse value
and converted to percentage, it would somewhat be skewiff :) Have you tested
it over a number of races and found any trends?

Perhaps it just weeds out the no hopers.

Very interesting post which should generate some discussion on the list.

What I can add is that I think the average horse is a little less than

2.75 metres.

2.50 would be more accurate.

The rugs I buy for my horses are 6 foot 6 inches and go from the bottom of
the rump to the almost to the top of the head near the poll.

That would make it just over two metres, but one has to allow for the extra
length for coverage of the frame.

Haven't got the tape measure out because they won't stand still long enough,
and the neck is not fully extended as per race conditions :P Lindsay

-----Original Message-----

From: Racing [ <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>
mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat

Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM

To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'

Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

snipped

The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and includes
a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is standardised at 2.75
metres. I can't support or verify that though.

The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it contested by
the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse lengths from that. 

Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated value by
the time of the race.

The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the subject
runner took to complete the course.

Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So,

3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second.

It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60 seconds.
You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value for this
runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second.

Average.

In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5 lengths.

2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62

Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second

2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second.

In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20

3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second.

Perhaps don't use this example, it was

A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too.

In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the
hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup.

When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 =

5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55

Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a value
of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of

5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a value of
5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a value of 5.52 Boom
Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight off Harlem has a value of
5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a value of 5.69, good for this
distance Kinema has a value of around

5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa value
of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner contested the MC
in

2016

the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths.

Self Sense has a value of 5.90

So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one
element approach.

I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon

Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races, sprint
or distance, wet or dry.

Cheers

Tony

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