[AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

Sat Apr 22 11:10:47 AEST 2017

Tony & Ausracers

I generally consider race times to only be usable for short races so it will
be interesting to consider your post for todays race.

Some of my work is based around using secs/100metres and the following table
is todays field when they ran first or second in the last 365 days. Todays
winner should be in the top five horses and my Trifecta is a box of
6-3-4-1-2

Mike

[CODE]
RANDWICK	8	4		1651	Boom Time	6.021
RANDWICK	8	4		1651	Boom Time	6.065
RANDWICK	8	6		2111	Big Duke	6.085
RANDWICK	8	3		3771	Tally		6.106
RANDWICK	8	6		2111	Big Duke	6.107
RANDWICK	8	12		2753	Lasqueti Spirit	6.108 
RANDWICK	8	3		3771	Tally		6.126
RANDWICK	8	4		1651	Boom Time	6.141
RANDWICK	8	6		2111	Big Duke	6.165
RANDWICK	8	5		3124	Chance To Dance	6.166
RANDWICK	8	4		1651	Boom Time	6.199

RANDWICK	8	15	E	2413	Rock On		6.204
RANDWICK	8	5		3124	Chance To Dance	6.214
RANDWICK	8	15	E	2413	Rock On		6.239
RANDWICK	8	4		1651	Boom Time	6.254
RANDWICK	8	11		7545	Kinema		6.275
RANDWICK	8	8		3510	Annus Mirabilis	6.285[/CODE]

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

This event was declared a no race when first contested on 8/4.
It is due to be contested on Saturday. Some of the original contenders
front up for the event.
When first run there was $1150196 total invested on three totes and
using the best of three tote dividends the following PERCENTAGES of
the total holding occurred
8.4,Who Shot Thebarman
4.1,Libran
4.3,Almoonqith
8.1,Tally
10.4,Assign
2.8,Chance To Dance
32.5,Big Duke
3.2,Annus Mirabilis
1.0,Mister Impatience
12.6,Penglai Pavilion
3.7,Kinema
1.0,Pentathlon
4.1,Vengeur Masque
3.9,Polarisation
Chance to Dance, Mister Impatience, Pentathlon, skew the the
percentages a little(2.3%) because of their varying tote divs across
the three boards.
Big Duke was the favourite across the board, then Penglai Pavilion and
Assign vied for second favourite status, Tally was a solid 4th in the
market. 
The horses mentioned had good solid backing. Tally had $100k+
invested.
Libran was friendless except for a sizeable bet early, about 3 hours
early, but was a hope according to Victoria and a no hoper in NSW and
Queensland.
Polarisation was unloved in Victoria but was hovering at 4th or 5th
elsewhere for a long time, including the off. The Quiet Shortener
perhaps.
The same argument can be made for Kinema although its lengths per
second figure is poor and it has failed in wet/heavy. 
The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names
represent their ranking
1,Who Shot Thebarman,6
2,Libran,9
3,Almoonqith,11
4,Tally,4
5,Assign,3
6,Chance To Dance,12
7,Big Duke,1
8,Annus Mirabilis,10
9,Mister Impatience,13
10,Penglai Pavilion, 2
11,Kinema,7
12,Pentathlon, 14
13,Vengeur Masque,8
14, Polarisation	,5
The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names
represent their ranking across the three totes.
I am unsure if you can take an advantage from these figures, but it
does show a different dynamic when looked at this way
The three tote figures and the tote history are interesting for some.

The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and
includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which
is standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though.
The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race
it contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of
horse lengths from that. 
Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated
value by the time of the race.
The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the
subject runner took to complete the course.

Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So,
3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second.
It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60
seconds. You now have all the values
needed to calculate a final value for this runner -
3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second. Average.

In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5
lengths. 
2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62
Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second
2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second.

In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20
3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second.
Perhaps don't use this example, it was
A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too.

In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the
hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup.

When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 =
5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55
Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run
WSTB has a value of 5.54
Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55
Tally has a value of 5.93 which appears good and he has weight off
Chance to Dance has a value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard
then
Libran has a value of 5.52
Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight off
Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed
Annus has a value of 5.69, good for this distance
Kinema has a value of around 5.48 which is low
Rock On has a value of 5.76
Mister Impatience ha sa value of 5.68
Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner contested the MC in
2016
the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths.
Self Sense has a value of 5.90

So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one
element approach.

I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon

Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races,
sprint or distance, wet or dry.

Cheers

Tony

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