[AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

Sat Apr 22 12:39:03 AEST 2017

Thanks Mike
You consider all runners though?
There is some work, Knowles and others, showing that first, and
second, can be treated as a one length win.
Another says 2nd and third can be treated as a 2nd, beaten 1 length. 
In those cases, lengths have been devalued.
Then they have values for other places, calculated, and out to 9th
runner, beaten 7 lengths.
Biggs has a table that shows average beaten lengths over a lot of
races which is interesting.

cheers

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Mike
McBain
Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2017 9:11 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

Tony & Ausracers

I generally consider race times to only be usable for short races so
it will be interesting to consider your post for todays race.

Some of my work is based around using secs/100metres and the following
table is todays field when they ran first or second in the last 365
days. Todays winner should be in the top five horses and my Trifecta
is a box of
6-3-4-1-2

Mike

[CODE]
RANDWICK	8	4		1651	Boom Time	6.021
RANDWICK	8	4		1651	Boom Time	6.065
RANDWICK	8	6		2111	Big Duke	6.085
RANDWICK	8	3		3771	Tally		6.106
RANDWICK	8	6		2111	Big Duke	6.107
RANDWICK	8	12		2753	Lasqueti Spirit	6.108 
RANDWICK	8	3		3771	Tally		6.126
RANDWICK	8	4		1651	Boom Time	6.141
RANDWICK	8	6		2111	Big Duke	6.165
RANDWICK	8	5		3124	Chance To Dance	6.166
RANDWICK	8	4		1651	Boom Time	6.199

RANDWICK	8	15	E	2413	Rock On		6.204
RANDWICK	8	5		3124	Chance To Dance	6.214
RANDWICK	8	15	E	2413	Rock On		6.239
RANDWICK	8	4		1651	Boom Time	6.254
RANDWICK	8	11		7545	Kinema		6.275
RANDWICK	8	8		3510	Annus Mirabilis
6.285[/CODE]

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

This event was declared a no race when first contested on 8/4.
It is due to be contested on Saturday. Some of the original contenders
front up for the event.
When first run there was $1150196 total invested on three totes and
using the best of three tote dividends the following PERCENTAGES of
the total holding occurred 8.4,Who Shot Thebarman 4.1,Libran
4.3,Almoonqith 8.1,Tally 10.4,Assign 2.8,Chance To Dance 32.5,Big Duke
3.2,Annus Mirabilis 1.0,Mister Impatience 12.6,Penglai Pavilion
3.7,Kinema 1.0,Pentathlon 4.1,Vengeur Masque 3.9,Polarisation Chance
to Dance, Mister Impatience, Pentathlon, skew the the percentages a
little(2.3%) because of their varying tote divs across the three
boards.
Big Duke was the favourite across the board, then Penglai Pavilion and
Assign vied for second favourite status, Tally was a solid 4th in the
market. 
The horses mentioned had good solid backing. Tally had $100k+
invested.
Libran was friendless except for a sizeable bet early, about 3 hours
early, but was a hope according to Victoria and a no hoper in NSW and
Queensland.
Polarisation was unloved in Victoria but was hovering at 4th or 5th
elsewhere for a long time, including the off. The Quiet Shortener
perhaps.
The same argument can be made for Kinema although its lengths per
second figure is poor and it has failed in wet/heavy. 
The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names
represent their ranking 1,Who Shot Thebarman,6
2,Libran,9
3,Almoonqith,11
4,Tally,4
5,Assign,3
6,Chance To Dance,12
7,Big Duke,1
8,Annus Mirabilis,10
9,Mister Impatience,13
10,Penglai Pavilion, 2
11,Kinema,7
12,Pentathlon, 14
13,Vengeur Masque,8
14, Polarisation	,5
The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names
represent their ranking across the three totes.
I am unsure if you can take an advantage from these figures, but it
does show a different dynamic when looked at this way The three tote
figures and the tote history are interesting for some.

The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and
includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is
standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though.
The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it
contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse
lengths from that. 
Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated
value by the time of the race.
The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the
subject runner took to complete the course.

Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So,
3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second.
It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60
seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value
for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second.
Average.

In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5
lengths. 
2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62
Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second
2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second.

In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20
3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second.
Perhaps don't use this example, it was
A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too.

In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the
hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup.

When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 =
5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55
Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a
value of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of
5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a
value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a
value of 5.52 Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight
off Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a
value of 5.69, good for this distance Kinema has a value of around
5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa
value of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner
contested the MC in
2016
the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths.
Self Sense has a value of 5.90

So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one
element approach.

I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon

Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races,
sprint or distance, wet or dry.

Cheers

Tony

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