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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText>Hi All,<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The market once again proved the best guide with the 3 placegetters being in the Top 5 of the betting. Below is a snapshot from my Race results website which I have just updated for yesterday’s races.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>I have also extended the results back to Sept 2012 and now have over 1 million horse race results spanning the last 6 years that you can presently interrogate for FREE using my Power BI portal.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>And you will get a response back from your query within a couple of seconds. Great stuff from the Microsoft Power BI team.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Cheers,<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>AN<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Nick Aubrey</span></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.5pt;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Tel: +61 (2) 9011 5264 | Mobile: 0403 496 971| Email: <a href="mailto:nick@nickaubey.net"><span style='color:#0563C1'>nick@nickaubey.com</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.5pt;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:11.5pt;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Punt For Profit ? Click below. It’s a Not-For-Loss organistion !</span></i><span style='font-size:11.5pt;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><br></span><a href="http://www.puntforprofit.com.au/"><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=245 height=41 id="Picture_x0020_2" src="cid:image003.png@01D2BC30.956F09E0" alt="cid:image001.png@01D0455A.09AE5EA0"></span></a><span style='font-size:11.5pt;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><img border=0 width=1270 height=626 id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image004.png@01D2BC30.956F09E0"></span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a name="_MailEndCompose"><o:p> </o:p></a></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>-----Original Message-----<br>From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat<br>Sent: Saturday, 22 April 2017 11:29 AM<br>To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing@ausrace.com><br>Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run</span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Hello Lindsay.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>No I have not priced the runners off this element.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The calculated value is an indicator of race distance strength.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The horse ability over the distance is exposed using this.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>It is an overall rating too.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Using values calculated from the early part of the race it is possible to see the settling process, then mid race capabilities, then the later speeds and an overall speed.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>You get that from times also, but these values have a horse in them, so to me they are more meaningful.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText> How accurate are the calculated lengths used. Nobody uses a finish photo and measures off that although they did and used to. Remember PictureForm?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText> You can see a runner go from 4+ to 7+ for an overall 6 something value in a race.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>If you do similar sums for the final 600 or 400 metres then you get some strong values.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText> Using the figures as they are, thus not adjusting for assessed finishing position/lengths, may mean you have removed the effect of the fan, the home turn, bad luck in running, bias and jockey decision. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>I assume the use of 2.75 metres to represent a horse length is a standard. It is a value from texts, Mordin is one although there are others who use 2.4m out to 2.75m.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Until we get the length, and the weight, of a runner it will do.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Tony<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>-----Original Message-----<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>From: Racing [<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</span></a>] On Behalf Of Race Stats<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2017 7:46 AM<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>racing@ausrace.com</span></a>><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Hi Tony,<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>I found your post most interesting.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Do you have a formula for converting the figures to odds.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>I'd assume if you just added up the figures and divided by the horse value and converted to percentage, it would somewhat be skewiff :) Have you tested it over a number of races and found any trends?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Perhaps it just weeds out the no hopers.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Very interesting post which should generate some discussion on the list.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>What I can add is that I think the average horse is a little less than<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>2.75 metres.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>2.50 would be more accurate.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The rugs I buy for my horses are 6 foot 6 inches and go from the bottom of the rump to the almost to the top of the head near the poll.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>That would make it just over two metres, but one has to allow for the extra length for coverage of the frame.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Haven't got the tape measure out because they won't stand still long enough, and the neck is not fully extended as per race conditions :P Lindsay<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>-----Original Message-----<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>From: Racing [<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</span></a>] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>snipped<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse lengths from that. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated value by the time of the race.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the subject runner took to complete the course.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So,<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60 seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Average.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5 lengths. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Perhaps don't use this example, it was<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 =<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a value of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a value of 5.52 Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight off Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a value of 5.69, good for this distance Kinema has a value of around<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa value of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner contested the MC in<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>2016<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Self Sense has a value of 5.90<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one element approach.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races, sprint or distance, wet or dry.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Cheers<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Tony<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>---<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="http://www.avg.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://www.avg.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Racing mailing list<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Racing@ausrace.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Racing mailing list<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Racing@ausrace.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Racing mailing list<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>Racing@ausrace.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>