[AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

Sat Apr 22 12:50:11 AEST 2017

Further to this, the 2.75 metres length for a runner is left over from
the 9 feet basis used in harness racing.
The trots are tied to the nebulous mile rating score so they are
lucky, they do have a horse in their equation.

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2017 9:29 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

Hello Lindsay.
snipped. 
I assume the use of 2.75 metres to represent a horse length is a
standard. It is a value from texts, Mordin is one although there are
others who use 2.4m out to 2.75m.
Until we get the length, and the weight, of a runner it will do.

Tony
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race
Stats
Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2017 7:46 AM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

Hi Tony,
snipped
What I can add is that I think the average horse is a little less than
2.75 metres.
2.50 would be more accurate.
The rugs I buy for my horses are 6 foot 6 inches and go from the
bottom of the rump to the almost to the top of the head near the poll.
That would make it just over two metres, but one has to allow for the
extra length for coverage of the frame.
Haven't got the tape measure out because they won't stand still long
enough, and the neck is not fully extended as per race conditions :P
Lindsay

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

snipped

The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and
includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is
standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though.
The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it
contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse
lengths from that. 
Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated
value by the time of the race.
The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the
subject runner took to complete the course.

Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So,
3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second.
It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60
seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value
for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second.
Average.

In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5
lengths. 
2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62
Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second
2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second.

In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20
3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second.
Perhaps don't use this example, it was
A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too.

In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the
hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup.

When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 =
5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55
Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a
value of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of
5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a
value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a
value of 5.52 Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight
off Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a
value of 5.69, good for this distance Kinema has a value of around
5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa
value of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner
contested the MC in
2016
the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths.
Self Sense has a value of 5.90

So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one
element approach.

I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon

Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races,
sprint or distance, wet or dry.

Cheers

Tony

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