[AusRace] Pfeiffer's - a system

[Tony Moffat]

Len – thanks – look forward to seeing what a big exam reveals. Pfeiffer had not done any statistical revelations to provide him with the selection criteria he used (the Group one, two or three bits)

 

Roger Biggs has done this (statistical number crunching) and was using an impact value of 1.something in his ratings if the runner had appeared in a Group race (explained in his book(s)).

 

To re-state the obvious, selections can be runners which finished a Group 1, or ran 1 or 2 or 3 in a Group 2, or won a Group 3.

 

Cheers

 

Tony

 

 

 

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
Sent: Thursday, 9 February 2023 5:52 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Pfeiffer's - a system

 

Tony,

 

Did a slow compilation from my data bases (which would have been a quick compilation a year ago) and I have Moe Race 5/3 Commodus having run 7th in the Group 1 Australian Guineas at Flemington 29/2/2020, which would qualify? Won at 7/4.

 

Then WaF 5/4 Cotton Fingers ran 17th in the Group 1 Queensland Derby at Eagle farm on 9/6/2007, which would qualify. BUT, Uh-oh! 2007. Reuse of name caught me out - time for me to tidy things up after the shortening of lag-time for reuse. 

 

Will send an analysis of long-term betting return after I sort out the reuse problem, so don't hold your breath; I'll have to redo the lot.

 

 


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Sent:

Wed, 8 Feb 2023 23:29:42 +0800

Subject:

[AusRace] Pfeiffer's - a system


I was at boarding school with Pfeiffer and found him at the races at
Canterbury about 6 years later. He had been trying to join up and to that
end he had his HR licence and needed an employer a with road train to get
further classifications, he was a private pilot but hopeful of getting his
commercial, fixed wing, and had his masters ticket for boating off shore, in
the open sea, and harbours, and had been employed as such. He had also lost
about 100 pounds of himself and didn't wear glasses anymore, had short hair
and a moustache, very sapper I thought and told him so too..

His system is this

Look for runners with group race form, any time in their past formline.

If its Group 1 they can be included no matter where they finished
If its Group 2 they can be included if they finished 1st, 2nd, or third
If its Group 3 they can be included if they finished First.

Today at Warwick Farm
Race 2 Warby Group1/ Group 3 (had finished 2nd) 2nd 
Race 2 Lomandra Group 3 (had finished 2nd) Won
Race 4 Mikasa Group 3(had finished 9)Won
Race 5 Nipotino Group 3 (had finished 8) unplaced
Race 7 Minouche Group 3 (had finished 5) 3rd

SUMMARY: One selection 2nd Warby
Other data included to show that Group runners are useful

Moe
Race 6 Rhinoceros Group 1 3rd


Another way - may be

Cheers

Tony



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