[AusRace] Bev Head - Rev Head - a system

[norsaintpublishing at gmail.com]

Van the man, eh Tony.
Years ago there was a galloper running around called Astral Weeks, which
tickled my fancy. Unfortunately it wasn't any good.

On Tue, 22 Nov 2022 at 11:05, Tony Moffat <tonymoffat at bigpond.com> wrote:

> Bevan liked cars, motors particularly, and it seemed each and every
> vehicular acquaintance of his got its head shaved, double valve springs,
> twin carbies, large and loud exhaust, bored and stroked, balanced and
> lowered. He had a few, he needed a few as some were in various stages of
> dis-repair, assembly, dis-assembly. Friends buy you a beer, Bev changed
> your
> oil, what a pal.
>
> Bevan was not the least fascinated by my fascination with things racing, my
> non-secular devotion to weight ratings, my up all night Friday looking at
> form and listening to records. All of this was in my garage and he has
> removed, repaired and replaced a motor in that time and space. He has his
> interests, and I have mine.
>
> To his credit Bevan did weight ratings but in his style. I'll assume you
> know the basis of class/weight ratings.
>
> What Bevan did is he used the weight carried by the horse in its Q run as
> the basis. Choosing a horse to work on was decided by its age, 5 or less,
> and the number of runs in from a spell, 5 or less.
>
> He corrected (added to) that base line by taking its finish position and
> multiplying that by 1.5(kgs).
>
> So 57 kgs, finished 5th = 57 + (5*1.5=7.5) equals 57 + 7.5 = 64.5.
> Bevan figured that this runner when finishing 5th with 57kgs had carried
> 64.5kgs.
>
> He factored in the race distance by multiplying the weight calculation with
> one of his own. If the race distance was 1400 metres he divided that
> distance by 1000 (1400/1000 = 1.4)
>
> Next he multiplied the weight rating (64.5) by the distance factor (1.4) so
> that the past rating for Q is 64.5 * 1.4 = 90.3.
>
> Bevan reasoned, and earnestly at that, that he had all the aspects of past
> form revelation covered with that value (90.3).
>
> The new (upcoming) race was dealt with like this. The distance was divided
> by 1000 (say,1600/1000= 1.6) and the horse raw weight was multiplied by
> that
> - say, 56 * 1.6 = 89.6. The final rating for this horse in the upcoming
> race
> was 90.3 - 89.6 =point 7 (0.7). All runners were treated like this, the
> final values zeroed, and a decision made off that.
>
> For a person used to dealing in thousandths of an inch he certainly went
> big
> and wide when doing racing form. He backed them with the SP bookmaker at
> the
> railway workshops when he worked permanent overtime on Saturday.
>
> Importantly, he finished his rating business before the end of the first
> record whereas I, we mostly, worked on into the freezing night (it was in
> Goulburn). Van Morrison often featured.
>
> SUMMARY:
> Aged 5 or less
> Runs from a spell 5 or less
> Past rating :- weight carried plus finish position *1.5 * race
> distance/1000
> = weight +  (finish *1.5) * (distance/1000)
> Future rating:- weight carried * race distance/1000 = weight *
> (distance/1000)
>
> That was how it went when he was serious about form study.
>
>
> Another way - may be
>
> Cheers
>
> Tony
>
>
> --
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