[AusRace] Bev Head - Rev Head - a system

[Tony Moffat]

Bevan liked cars, motors particularly, and it seemed each and every
vehicular acquaintance of his got its head shaved, double valve springs,
twin carbies, large and loud exhaust, bored and stroked, balanced and
lowered. He had a few, he needed a few as some were in various stages of
dis-repair, assembly, dis-assembly. Friends buy you a beer, Bev changed your
oil, what a pal. 

Bevan was not the least fascinated by my fascination with things racing, my
non-secular devotion to weight ratings, my up all night Friday looking at
form and listening to records. All of this was in my garage and he has
removed, repaired and replaced a motor in that time and space. He has his
interests, and I have mine. 

To his credit Bevan did weight ratings but in his style. I'll assume you
know the basis of class/weight ratings.

What Bevan did is he used the weight carried by the horse in its Q run as
the basis. Choosing a horse to work on was decided by its age, 5 or less,
and the number of runs in from a spell, 5 or less.

He corrected (added to) that base line by taking its finish position and
multiplying that by 1.5(kgs).

So 57 kgs, finished 5th = 57 + (5*1.5=7.5) equals 57 + 7.5 = 64.5.
Bevan figured that this runner when finishing 5th with 57kgs had carried
64.5kgs.

He factored in the race distance by multiplying the weight calculation with
one of his own. If the race distance was 1400 metres he divided that
distance by 1000 (1400/1000 = 1.4)

Next he multiplied the weight rating (64.5) by the distance factor (1.4) so
that the past rating for Q is 64.5 * 1.4 = 90.3.

Bevan reasoned, and earnestly at that, that he had all the aspects of past
form revelation covered with that value (90.3).

The new (upcoming) race was dealt with like this. The distance was divided
by 1000 (say,1600/1000= 1.6) and the horse raw weight was multiplied by that
- say, 56 * 1.6 = 89.6. The final rating for this horse in the upcoming race
was 90.3 - 89.6 =point 7 (0.7). All runners were treated like this, the
final values zeroed, and a decision made off that.

For a person used to dealing in thousandths of an inch he certainly went big
and wide when doing racing form. He backed them with the SP bookmaker at the
railway workshops when he worked permanent overtime on Saturday. 

Importantly, he finished his rating business before the end of the first
record whereas I, we mostly, worked on into the freezing night (it was in
Goulburn). Van Morrison often featured.

SUMMARY:
Aged 5 or less
Runs from a spell 5 or less
Past rating :- weight carried plus finish position *1.5 * race distance/1000
= weight +  (finish *1.5) * (distance/1000)
Future rating:- weight carried * race distance/1000 = weight *
(distance/1000)

That was how it went when he was serious about form study.


Another way - may be

Cheers

Tony


-- 
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG antivirus software.
www.avg.com