[AusRace] The Scores - a system

[Tony Moffat]

The maths employed here are flawed - just saying

Calvin was infamous for getting himself removed off course, although he
spread himself around a bit because it might be harness, dogs and
occasionally thoroughbred racing in Melbourne. He was probably a pest, by
any definition, and I first met him formally after he was arrested, and that
was for stomping, jumping, on a calculator. 

Perhaps it was a slow day, crimewise. 

Again, he had been removed after being bailed for his calculator hopscotch
antics and he recognized me as the bagman with whom he had two $20 bets,
same horse, and it won, and how am I going to collect now? I told him how.

 It was his calculator, nobody else was involved, nobody else was affected
in any way and if he kept talking while the tram squeaked towards the city
he would have justified himself and his jumping, besides he picked it up
after, cleaned up and the evidence went in the bin, and he didn't swear so
much. He swore a lot ordinarily. Then a revelation when he said he probably
didn't, doesn't, know how to behave anyway. 
 
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The Scores System was this:

Calvin worked the win/runs ratios. He divided the number of runs by the
number of wins for that horse, to get a theoretical dividend
Then, he did some voodoo, he gave each horse another run, and he gave each
horse another win, and looked at that theoretical dividend.

The runner(s) that altered least were the 'goers', the 'triers', the 'best
of a bad lot' according to Calvin. Consider 11/1 = 11, then 12 runs/2 wins =
6 that's quite a difference ('diff' in Calvin speak) and has to be
significant when comparing runner v runner, so says he. To demonstrate
Calvin divided 12/6 to show 2, then multiplied that by hundred to get 200,
then took a hundred away to show a 100% improvement. He said that and I'm
telling you.

Calvin probably didn't bet every race, or every 'goer', but he trapped
enough at good prices for it to seem worthwhile.

Some examples - Melbourne 15/07 was rained off
SR 7 Duchess (35.5) Hard Lady (45.1) On Her Word (81.8)
These, in order finished 1st, 3rd, 2nd
SR 6 Cuellar (0) won
SR 5 Arobollini won, Apache Belle second, Pecuniary Interest 3rd
SR 4 We got 1st to 4th (as did everybody, everythink - there being 4 runners
only)
Melbourne Cup 2020
Twilight Payment - won $27.1 from 30 runs divided by 7 wins = 4.3
theoretical dividend
Now increase the input values by one (31/8 = 3.9) then  Calvin divided
4.3/3.9 = 1.1025641 (I promised you accuracy)
Multiplied that by 100 = 110.256 then removed 100 to show an 'over' of 10.25
(although Excel shows it as 10.6 - cursed decimal points in the calculation)
Very Elleeggant was the score leader (8.9)

That is the crux of his method, there is some more finessing calculations
but the primary selections came from this system. 

Using the paper prices, the morning line pre post, he did some more
calculating which fined down the selections, I won't comment on this 2nd and
third finessing. As stated, he may have been betting on selections which ran
in often enough for him to show a profit, or at least keep him interested.

Another way - may be. The utilisation of a single point of data on which to
base a selection would make traditional raters shudder (the may be aspect)
but Calvin went beyond that, using his selections and the assessed prices.

Cheers

Tony







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