[AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)

[Greg Conroy]

I asked a colleague to run this for Oliver through his database:



"Oliver. 1.4.2015 onward so slightly more than the last 5 years or so where DOliver rode the horse last start and is did not ride it this start. At my prices and BFSP discount.
13.9% SR and 15.9% POT.”


Greg Conroy, Inventor of Award Winning and Free:

www.rewardbet.com   … read more: https://about.rewardbet.com/ <https://about.rewardbet.com/>

And author of https://winwithoutform <https://winwithoutform/>.com






> On 24 Sep 2020, at 5:03 pm, Tony Moffat <tonymoffat at bigpond.com> wrote:
> 
> Len - as always, dependable, and thanks.
> 
> I get 9429 = 2328 + 7101
> 
> Ollie on a winner = (2328/100) * 17.6  equals 410 winners from 2328 rides
> and he needs  $5.70 each runner (2328/410 = 5.70)
> 
> Joe Average (aka NotOllie) = (7101/100) * 13.7 equals 973 winners from 7101
> rides and s/he needs $7.30 each runner (7101/973 = 7.30)
> 
> Ollie when placed = (2328/100) * 43.2 equals 1006 placed so 2328/1006 =
> $2.30(5/4 - 5/1)
> NotOllie when placed = (7101/100) * 36.3 equals 2578 placed so 7101/2578 =
> $2.75 (7/4 - 7/1)
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Tony.  
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
> Sent: Thursday, 24 September 2020 12:47 PM
> To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)
> 
> Tony, 
> 
> I have an easily accessed data base with jockey this start and last start
> for the past 20 years, with my ratings of both jockeys, which will be
> different to others' jockey ratings, which makes agreement as to who is a
> "top jockey" impossible - and assessing someone as top based on rating will
> mean at some times a jockey may be rated "top", at others, not top. 
> 
> So for DOliver:
> 
> 9429 horses DOliver rode last start,
> 
> This start DOliver again rides:
> 
> 2328 starts, 17.6% win, 43.2% place, return at level stake SP 78%, at my
> 100% normalised SP - 90%
> 
> This start a different jockey:
> 
> 7101 starts, 13.7% win, 36.3% place, return at level stake SP 79%, at my
> 100% normalised SP - 104%.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Racing On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
> Sent: Thursday, 24 September 2020 10:09 AM
> To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
> Subject: [AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)
> 
> Is there a database gun who can assist with this query please?
> 
> If Damien Oliver rides one and it fails then DOESN'T ride it next time out,
> how often does it win/place it's next race?
> 
> It doesn't have to be Ollie, it's just that he rides so many.
> 
> It doesn't have to be a long term study either, say since Mid August until
> recently. 
> 
> Why? - it's the basis of a system from the 60's that I want to tell you
> about.
> 
> The rules:
> Top jockey rode the selection last start.
> This start the jockey is an apprentice, or another jockey (rated top or
> not).
> 
> The authors claim 60% place at 14/1+ win - (and they are selling this secret
> to us).
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Tony
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
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