[AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)

[Tony Moffat]

Len - as always, dependable, and thanks.

I get 9429 = 2328 + 7101

Ollie on a winner = (2328/100) * 17.6  equals 410 winners from 2328 rides
and he needs  $5.70 each runner (2328/410 = 5.70)

Joe Average (aka NotOllie) = (7101/100) * 13.7 equals 973 winners from 7101
rides and s/he needs $7.30 each runner (7101/973 = 7.30)

Ollie when placed = (2328/100) * 43.2 equals 1006 placed so 2328/1006 =
$2.30(5/4 - 5/1)
NotOllie when placed = (7101/100) * 36.3 equals 2578 placed so 7101/2578 =
$2.75 (7/4 - 7/1)

Cheers

Tony.  

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
Sent: Thursday, 24 September 2020 12:47 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)

Tony, 

I have an easily accessed data base with jockey this start and last start
for the past 20 years, with my ratings of both jockeys, which will be
different to others' jockey ratings, which makes agreement as to who is a
"top jockey" impossible - and assessing someone as top based on rating will
mean at some times a jockey may be rated "top", at others, not top. 

So for DOliver:

9429 horses DOliver rode last start,

This start DOliver again rides:

2328 starts, 17.6% win, 43.2% place, return at level stake SP 78%, at my
100% normalised SP - 90%

This start a different jockey:

7101 starts, 13.7% win, 36.3% place, return at level stake SP 79%, at my
100% normalised SP - 104%.







-----Original Message-----
From: Racing On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Thursday, 24 September 2020 10:09 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: [AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)

Is there a database gun who can assist with this query please?

If Damien Oliver rides one and it fails then DOESN'T ride it next time out,
how often does it win/place it's next race?

It doesn't have to be Ollie, it's just that he rides so many.

It doesn't have to be a long term study either, say since Mid August until
recently. 

Why? - it's the basis of a system from the 60's that I want to tell you
about.

The rules:
Top jockey rode the selection last start.
This start the jockey is an apprentice, or another jockey (rated top or
not).

The authors claim 60% place at 14/1+ win - (and they are selling this secret
to us).

Cheers

Tony






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