[AusRace] Ace's Method . The Best Plan - a system

Thu Jul 2 18:37:59 AEST 2020

The analysis of newspaper selectors - you've had the scores and now the
results

Why? - this information (and some more otw) is required for operation of
'The Best Plan'  which cost a big quid way back when.

1stPoll Favourite/winners/placings/#number of selections - after scr, dead
heats included (260+dh+dh+dh+dh = 264)

1/158/319/556

2/87/264/555

3/79/218/556

4/63/196/547

5/46/135/499

6/30/86/405

7/19/59/259

8/5/25/156

9/3/12/80

10/0/4/46

More: see note re DH

1 &2 Poll -242 wins,579 places 

1,2,3 Poll - 321 wins, 796 places

1 to 4 Poll - 383 wins, 989 places

1 to 5 Poll - 428 wins, 1123 places

1 to 6 Poll - 458 wins, 1209 places

1 to 7 Poll - 477 wins, 1277 places

1 to 8 Poll - 482 wins,1302 places         

1 to 9 Poll - 485 wins, 1314 places        

1 to 10 Poll - 485 wins, 1318 places

More: Pre-post prices (winners/places)

ODDS ON 26/39 

1-1  11/20     

5-4 8/18

6-4 20/36

7-4 20/31

2-1 25/45

9-4 26/47

5-2 33/86     

3-1 52/117

7-2 36/74     

4-1 37/122

9-2 11/25

5-1 38/131

6-1 37/132   

7-1 22/84

8-1 37/117

10-1 22/98

12-122/103

14-1 5/22

15-1 13/65

16-1 6/19

20-1 17/66

25-1 9/50

33-1 9/40

50-1 3/22

100-1 9/1

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Wednesday, 1 July 2020 4:49 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Ace's Method

Subject: FW: Ace's Method

In the 1970-1971 racing year Ace selected on 57 races resulting in 14 wins
13 places, 27 total places.  They were centred around the carnivals although
winners names etc are not known. 

Ace = AGE, and Flash Freddie and Perc the Punter were other luminaries who
may have been alter egos of the Huxleys G,D,R (as told to me)

The analysis of poll points awarded - winners/places

48 points/5 winners/10 places,
47/7/10,46/7/15,45/5/9,44/8/14,43/11/16,42/7/16,41/11/17,40/9/31,39/7/14,38/
4/14,37/12/20,36/4/18,35/13/24,34/716,33/12/23,32/12/26,31/9/15,30/10/23,29/
10/25,28/5/19,

27/7/28,26/14/31,25/5/19,24/5/25,23/9/24,22/5/18,21/3/11,20/7/22,19/9/23,18/
13/24,17/10/28,16/9/28,15/10/29,14/16/37,13/10/32,12/14/31,11/10/25,10/8/34,
9/11/29,8/14/45,

7/6/28,6/21/47,5/10/43,4/11/54,3/28/69,2/23/81,1/23/86 - hope that formats
ok.

There are several systems based on these 'facts' alone. Take 48 points - it
scored 5 winners, and another 5 places for a total of ten. There is no
indication as to how many 48 pointers there were - say 150 during the year
(yes, I'm guessing) and the 5 + 5 is pretty dismal as a selector, but there
are systems based just on this detail alone, either the exact 48 points
required, or the highest scorer for the meeting, or similar. One system asks
you to consider runners in points 'bands' (1-9 over 9/1), (10-18 over 9/1).
One pointers scored 23 winners and 86 places, perhaps an indication of the
richness of a number is that the place result should be 2 or 3 times the win
total. There are more places in the low numbers because there are more of
them, low numbers. 

The tipster poll features largely, loudly in systems

Cheers

Tony 

From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com] 
Sent: Monday, 22 June 2020 12:23 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
<mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Ace's Method

Ace's Method

Ace was a tipster for a brief time in Melbourne in the early 70's. This
system is on two typewritten pages, it is perhaps the only copy.

Ace makes the observation that the tipsters poll is a good indicator of the
capability of a horse to win a race. 

The author does not discuss how they pick horses to include in a tipster
poll only that the tips, and those others of that ilk combined, will
generally find the winner.

Further, Ace concludes that after all the tips are collated and displayed
then a scratching occurs this somehow enables the remaining horses in the
poll.  Those remaining strengthen their hold on the race outcome. The
increase in SP of a remaining horse can be used to advantage in making a
profit.

Often, Ace says more often, long priced winners arrive in a race where
(poll) horses have been scratched and it is these contests that the shrewd
punter should bet on.

There are no tables, charts, statistics from which a conclusion can be
drawn. Ace said it, it must be so. This is how system authors are.

There are no rules, only conclusions per se

(a)          Consider all horses in the tipsters poll - The Age poll of 16
tipsters are used here.

(b)          Record the pre race price of all runners in the poll

(c)           On race day if there is a scratching the race can be checked
for suitability only if the scratched horse  had a pre-race price.

(d)          Compare the pre-race price (from the newspaper) with the
displayed price in the ring on race day and record those horses whose price
has increased. 

(e)          A horse whose price has increased becomes a system horse. There
may be two or more. Back them to ensure a profit, win or place or each way.

There are two paragraphs on why the chosen horse becomes a viable bet. If a
poll horse is scratched it is natural that the remaining horses will shorten
in price to counteract that scratching.

A horse outside the poll, if scratched, may not affect the market to any
extent, its removal may result in all prices being shortened across the
board.

A horse, in the poll, that lengthens in price becomes good value because it
was good enough to be chosen initially and now one of its rivals has been
removed (the scratching), nothing else otherwise has changed.

Ace reports that during the 1972-73 racing season there were 61 races bet on
and there were 15 winners, 13 seconds and thirds  and 28 total places but no
other data (average price would help)

This another way to qualify the runners in the tipsters poll (a follow on
from The Editors Method)

Results are from the following season

(a)          There has to be a scratching

(b)          The tipsters poll horse price has to lengthen

11/8 MR8 SCR Split Up - Ballarat (6/4-13/4-3/1) 1st

25/8 MR6  SCR PORTICO - Gay Icarus (7/1-8/1-12/1) 2nd

01/09 MR9 SCR  Trifling +1 - Dorica Lass (6/1- 6/1-12/1) 1st

8/9 MR5 -SCR Felipa - Taj Rossi (8/1-12/1-10/1) 1st

8/9 MR6 - SCR LEGOGLIO- Rickshaws Luck (7/1-10/1-9/1) 1st

27/9 MR2- SCR Showhonour - Gala Comet (12/1-20/1-16/1-33/1) 1st

29/9 MR2 SCR Replied - Mellition (8/1-11/1 tote) 1st

27/10 Cox Plate  SCR SOBAR, GRAND CIDIUM - Swell Time (15/1-10/1-20/1-10/1)
2nd..Magnifique (7/1 -12/1) Unp)

Cheers

Tony

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