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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'> The analysis of newspaper selectors – you’ve had the scores and now the results<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>Why? – this information (and some more otw) is required for operation of ‘The Best Plan’ which cost a big quid way back when.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>1stPoll Favourite/winners/placings/#number of selections – after scr, dead heats included (260+dh+dh+dh+dh = 264)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>1/158/319/556<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>2/87/264/555<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>3/79/218/556<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>4/63/196/547<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>5/46/135/499<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>6/30/86/405<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>7/19/59/259<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>8/5/25/156<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>9/3/12/80<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>10/0/4/46<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'> More: see note re DH<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>1 &2 Poll -242 wins,579 places <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>1,2,3 Poll – 321 wins, 796 places<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>1 to 4 Poll – 383 wins, 989 places<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>1 to 5 Poll – 428 wins, 1123 places<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>1 to 6 Poll – 458 wins, 1209 places<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>1 to 7 Poll – 477 wins, 1277 places<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>1 to 8 Poll – 482 wins,1302 places <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>1 to 9 Poll – 485 wins, 1314 places <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>1 to 10 Poll – 485 wins, 1318 places<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>More: Pre-post prices (winners/places)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'> ODDS ON 26/39 <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:21.6pt;text-indent:-21.6pt;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>1-1<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>11/20 <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>5-4 8/18<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>6-4 20/36<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>7-4 20/31<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>2-1 25/45<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>9-4 26/47<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>5-2 33/86 <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>3-1 52/117<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>7-2 36/74 <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>4-1 37/122<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>9-2 11/25<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>5-1 38/131<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>6-1 37/132 <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>7-1 22/84<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>8-1 37/117<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>10-1 22/98<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>12-122/103<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>14-1 5/22<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>15-1 13/65<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>16-1 6/19<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>20-1 17/66<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>25-1 9/50<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>33-1 9/40<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>50-1 3/22<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>100-1 9/1<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Tony Moffat<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, 1 July 2020 4:49 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing@ausrace.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Ace's Method<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><br><b>Subject:</b> FW: Ace's Method<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>In the 1970-1971 racing year Ace selected on 57 races resulting in 14 wins 13 places, 27 total places. They were centred around the carnivals although winners names etc are not known. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>Ace = AGE, and Flash Freddie and Perc the Punter were other luminaries who may have been alter egos of the Huxleys G,D,R (as told to me)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>The analysis of poll points awarded – winners/places<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>48 points/5 winners/10 places, 47/7/10,46/7/15,45/5/9,44/8/14,43/11/16,42/7/16,41/11/17,40/9/31,39/7/14,38/4/14,37/12/20,36/4/18,35/13/24,34/716,33/12/23,32/12/26,31/9/15,30/10/23,29/10/25,28/5/19,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>27/7/28,26/14/31,25/5/19,24/5/25,23/9/24,22/5/18,21/3/11,20/7/22,19/9/23,18/13/24,17/10/28,16/9/28,15/10/29,14/16/37,13/10/32,12/14/31,11/10/25,10/8/34,9/11/29,8/14/45,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>7/6/28,6/21/47,5/10/43,4/11/54,3/28/69,2/23/81,1/23/86 – hope that formats ok.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>There are several systems based on these ‘facts’ alone. Take 48 points – it scored 5 winners, and another 5 places for a total of ten. There is no indication as to how many 48 pointers there were – say 150 during the year (yes, I’m guessing) and the 5 + 5 is pretty dismal as a selector, but there are systems based just on this detail alone, either the exact 48 points required, or the highest scorer for the meeting, or similar. One system asks you to consider runners in points ‘bands’ (1-9 over 9/1), (10-18 over 9/1). One pointers scored 23 winners and 86 places, perhaps an indication of the richness of a number is that the place result should be 2 or 3 times the win total. There are more places in the low numbers because there are more of them, low numbers. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>The tipster poll features largely, loudly in systems<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>Tony <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> Tony Moffat [<a href="mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com">mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com</a>] <br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, 22 June 2020 12:23 AM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Ace's Method<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>Ace’s Method<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>Ace was a tipster for a brief time in Melbourne in the early 70’s. This system is on two typewritten pages, it is perhaps the only copy.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>Ace makes the observation that the tipsters poll is a good indicator of the capability of a horse to win a race. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>The author does not discuss how they pick horses to include in a tipster poll only that the tips, and those others of that ilk combined, will generally find the winner.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>Further, Ace concludes that after all the tips are collated and displayed then a scratching occurs this somehow enables the remaining horses in the poll. Those remaining strengthen their hold on the race outcome. The increase in SP of a remaining horse can be used to advantage in making a profit.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>Often, Ace says more often, long priced winners arrive in a race where (poll) horses have been scratched and it is these contests that the shrewd punter should bet on.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>There are no tables, charts, statistics from which a conclusion can be drawn. Ace said it, it must be so. This is how system authors are.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>There are no rules, only conclusions per se<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>(a) Consider all horses in the tipsters poll – The Age poll of 16 tipsters are used here.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>(b) Record the pre race price of all runners in the poll<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>(c) On race day if there is a scratching the race can be checked for suitability only if the scratched horse had a pre-race price.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>(d) Compare the pre-race price (from the newspaper) with the displayed price in the ring on race day and record those horses whose price has increased. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>(e) A horse whose price has increased becomes a system horse. There may be two or more. Back them to ensure a profit, win or place or each way.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>There are two paragraphs on why the chosen horse becomes a viable bet. If a poll horse is scratched it is natural that the remaining horses will shorten in price to counteract that scratching.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>A horse outside the poll, if scratched, may not affect the market to any extent, its removal may result in all prices being shortened across the board.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>A horse, in the poll, that lengthens in price becomes good value because it was good enough to be chosen initially and now one of its rivals has been removed (the scratching), nothing else otherwise has changed.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>Ace reports that during the 1972-73 racing season there were 61 races bet on and there were 15 winners, 13 seconds and thirds and 28 total places but no other data (average price would help)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>This another way to qualify the runners in the tipsters poll (a follow on from The Editors Method)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>Results are from the following season<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>(a) There has to be a scratching<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>(b) The tipsters poll horse price has to lengthen<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>11/8 MR8 SCR Split Up – Ballarat (6/4-13/4-3/1) 1st<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>25/8 MR6 SCR PORTICO – Gay Icarus (7/1-8/1-12/1) 2nd<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>01/09 MR9 SCR Trifling +1 – Dorica Lass (6/1- 6/1-12/1) 1st<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>8/9 MR5 –SCR Felipa – Taj Rossi (8/1-12/1-10/1) 1st<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>8/9 MR6 – SCR LEGOGLIO- Rickshaws Luck (7/1-10/1-9/1) 1st<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>27/9 MR2- SCR Showhonour – Gala Comet (12/1-20/1-16/1-33/1) 1st<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>29/9 MR2 SCR Replied – Mellition (8/1-11/1 tote) 1st<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>27/10 Cox Plate SCR SOBAR, GRAND CIDIUM – Swell Time (15/1-10/1-20/1-10/1) 2nd..Magnifique (7/1 -12/1) Unp)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:normal'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div id=DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=1 cellspacing=3 cellpadding=0 style='border:none;border-top:solid #D3D4DE 1.0pt'><tr><td width=59 style='width:41.25pt;border:none;padding:9.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=46 height=29 id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://ipmcdn.avast.com/images/icons/icon-envelope-tick-green-avg-v1.png"></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=474 style='width:352.5pt;border:none;padding:9.0pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:13.5pt'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#41424E;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Virus-free. <a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='color:#4453EA'>www.avg.com</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></body></html>