[AusRace] BFSP

[Greg Conroy]

I sat next to the inventor of BF SP for three months whilst bringing the tote into Betfair whilst on secondment to Betfair UK.

He provided the spreadsheet he used to prototype the calculations and the same spreadsheet the engineering team used to code and test the product.

The same stuff that regulators receive to approve the product.

I’m a smart guy (10 patents etc) but it was beyond me to understand except in principle.

It’s a great product but can be limited by the amount of liquidity in the main exchange markets.

Greg.
On 25 Feb 2020, 5:42 PM +1100, L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au>, wrote:
> I've said I don't trust the computation of BFSP; here's a little preliminary back-up from my collection of 4,894 prices from 15/2/2020-23/2. That's limited data but will quickly increase.
>
> 1002 were exact $ values, being 20% compared to an expected 1%. That is so far outside normal expectation that I can't think of a rational reason other than manipulation or providing misleading figures.
>
> It's not because the higher prices are rounded - the 10 highest prices are:
> 511.84
> 557.25
> 567.44
> 571.09
> 580.88
> 592.44
> 604.27
> 668.85
> 671.44
> 833.61
> the 10 lowest prices are:
> 1.23
> 1.30
> 1.30
> 1.36
> 1.39
> 1.51
> 1.52
> 1.53
> 1.53
> 1.54
>
> Of the 3,892 prices that are not exact $ values, 850 were to 10 cents ala TAB (eg 1.30 as above), being 22% compared to an expected 10%.
>
> If I get around to it, I'll conjure up a theoretical (it has to be theoretical as BF don't provide data to enable checking) example of how the calculations can be rigged to favour certain people, including BF.
>
> LBL
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