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<div dir="auto">I sat next to the inventor of BF SP for three months whilst bringing the tote into Betfair whilst on secondment to Betfair UK.
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<div dir="auto">He provided the spreadsheet he used to prototype the calculations and the same spreadsheet the engineering team used to code and test the product. </div>
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<div dir="auto">The same stuff that regulators receive to approve the product. </div>
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<div dir="auto">I’m a smart guy (10 patents etc) but it was beyond me to understand except in principle. </div>
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<div dir="auto">It’s a great product but can be limited by the amount of liquidity in the main exchange markets. </div>
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<div dir="auto">Greg. </div>
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<div name="messageReplySection">On 25 Feb 2020, 5:42 PM +1100, L.B.Loveday <lloveday@ozemail.com.au>, wrote:<br />
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">I've said I don't trust the computation of BFSP; here's a little preliminary back-up from my collection of 4,894 prices from 15/2/2020-23/2. That's limited data but will quickly increase.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">1002 were exact $ values, being 20% compared to an expected 1%. That is so far outside normal expectation that I can't think of a rational reason other than manipulation or providing misleading figures.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">It's not because the higher prices are rounded - the 10 highest prices are:</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">511.84</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">557.25</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">567.44</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">571.09</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">580.88</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">592.44</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">604.27</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">668.85</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">671.44</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">833.61</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">the 10 lowest prices are:</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">1.23</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">1.30</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">1.30</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">1.36</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">1.39</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">1.51</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">1.52</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">1.53</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">1.53</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU">1.54</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">Of the 3,892 prices that are not exact $ values, 850 were to 10 cents ala TAB (eg 1.30 as above), being 22% compared to an expected 10%.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">If I get around to it, I'll conjure up a theoretical (it has to be theoretical as BF don't provide data to enable checking) example of how the calculations can be rigged to favour certain people, including BF.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">LBL</span></p>
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