[AusRace] Jockeys generally

Wed Jan 23 10:02:11 AEDT 2019

Hi Sean,

Had a ripper New Years eve. Had no alcohol for the night (10000/1 in the old days: I must be getting wiser??!!) and woke up fitter than the proverbial Mallee bull.

I am about to do a study of jockeys and trainers for Vic and SA over the last couple of years using figures based on proportional betting of their rides. Thus if $101 the bet is $1 and if $11 the bet is $10.

My prelims show some jockeys are much better than the public realizes. Obviously the likes of J Allen D Yendall, just to name two, who ride for DK Weir are overbet, especially in the non metro tracks. Then there’s the issue of  rides on well fancied horses which I suggest is $5 and under. Again some surprises but to be fair I have really only glanced. I don’t have W Pike WA figures but I suspect he is way over bet with Williams and Durrant  runners which  , of course, means, to a certain extent, that other jockeys are under rated by the public. I suppose the issue is by how much. On everything I see from your postings it seems Lucy Warwick is up there in most distance ranges.

Re P Hall: well it is a matter of how you use your various ratings. Bet them both if you have time and jockey ratings , maybe?

I will contact you re Perth figures in due time. 

Cheers

Roman Koz

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of sean mclaren
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2019 7:32 AM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally

Hey roman

Trust you are well and brought in the New Year with plenty of cheer. 

Oddly enough my bathroom scales has a missing battery. Convenient😃

To the business at hand, I was just illustrating how the A2E method works as a jockey rating method. The list is a small extract. 

The reason for Hall having nothing for say 2400? is that I put a minimum of 50 rides. 

Interesting you mention P Hall. My speed ratings had Star Exhibit rated on top in the Perth Cup. If I had referred to the A2E list I would have been tipped out. Lol. 

I confess that I have dug into the A2E side of things many years ago. Although I had no joy, I believe that Len incorporates A2E somewhere in his setup. So does Nick A. 

At their level you are also massaging a Fav Long Shot (FLS) bias factor that would make my  list more accurate. 

I stumbled across the FLS bias factor in my Dr Z readings. Although talked about and quantified throughout the book I could not see the equation used. 

Roman I can forward through the complete list if you were interested.

As an aside., personally I have yet to incorporate a Jockey adjustment to my speed ratings. Or a trainer adjustment for that matter. I prefer to keep them in their rawest state, for now. 

That being said, I have toyed with an average beaten margin index. The goal being to provide further separation / clarity to the ratings. As a rule of thumb 

I get say 3 speed points to a length. Ie it oscillates around 3 depending on the distance and other factors. So I can easily multiply the index by say 3, and simply add on. The strength of the jockey would be borne out in the difference of the gross adjust. 

Despite having a access database with 10 years of data. incorporating these type of adjustments is like turning the Queen Mary around in Sydney harbour. 

Ideally you would be looking for a before versus an after set. My VBA skills are as such, that I cannot whip up code to achieve the above in a reasonable amount of time. 

Best regards Sean

On Tue, 22 Jan 2019 22:42 Roman <kozza1950 at bigpond.com wrote:

Hey Sean,

How’s life?

I am afraid I am missing the point of your stats. Yes, I can see Peter Hall is 0.51 at 1800m but Pike is the same over at 1100m with over 10 times the rides by Pike. 

Why haven’t you provided P Hall at all distances? As for his figure of 2.04 for 1400m at just 59 rides is no indication, surely?

Why are the others incomplete?

Roman Koz

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of sean mclaren
Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2019 4:38 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally

JockeyA2ETable
AscotTrack

Rider

Distance

Actual

Expected

Rides

A2E

DAMIAN LANE

1200

7

22.25

178

0.31

DANIEL STAECK

1000

3

20.40

157

0.15

DANIEL STAECK

1200

12

20.40

206

0.59

DANIEL STAECK

1400

19

19.39

222

0.98

DANIEL STAECK

1600

11

7.68

59

1.43

DANIEL STAECK

1800

9

8.61

48

1.05

LUCY WARWICK

1000

19

11.83

150

1.61

LUCY WARWICK

1200

10

8.98

53

1.11

PETER HALL

1200

9

8.12

56

1.11

PETER HALL

1400

15

7.37

59

2.04

PETER HALL

1600

18

22.28

184

0.81

PETER HALL

1800

4

7.88

45

0.51

PETER KNUCKEY

1000

26

64.45

381

0.40

PETER KNUCKEY

1100

26

35.25

253

0.74

PETER KNUCKEY

1200

36

34.01

207

1.06

PETER KNUCKEY

1400

27

24.39

159

1.11

PETER KNUCKEY

1600

11

40.31

214

0.27

PETER KNUCKEY

1800

9

7.44

60

1.21

WILLIAM PIKE

1000

37

48.42

332

0.76

WILLIAM PIKE

1100

41

80.55

571

0.51

WILLIAM PIKE

1200

96

86.60

434

1.11

WILLIAM PIKE

1400

89

86.57

487

1.03

WILLIAM PIKE

1500

26

26.37

127

0.99

WILLIAM PIKE

1600

79

70.15

474

1.13

WILLIAM PIKE

1800

33

35.14

159

0.94

WILLIAM PIKE

2200

38

45.77

246

0.83

Here an extract of a few jocks in WA. The right hand column is the ROI for a $1.

Caveat is these rides only include the first 5 in the market. Primitive means of extracting

the outliers.

Essentially the over round is taken out and the markets reset to 100%. >From there an expected 

wins figure is arrived at. And ultimately checked against the actual. These have pulled at random.

The first couple are interesting. Remembering these are in the first 5.

On Mon, Jan 21, 2019 at 5:13 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

Tony,

Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.

LBL

790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to

expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame

covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40% advanced

on some others in this race.

No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than

that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a

horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for

statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a

calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a good

ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -

.6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).

Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is

0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is

.31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign

that value to it early in the calculation.

Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of

all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is a

jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank

jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so

that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and

I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all

the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I

individually determine an iv. 

There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is

not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends

in the sub $2 range, most of us really. 

This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under

the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in

1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually

Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is again

divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These

numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of the

overall stat picture

Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as

jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from

that.

Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I

multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.

Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)

Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win

a race

Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.

Dylan Dunn = 1.1

There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.

This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting

in it, nor do I suggest you do.

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