[AusRace] Jockeys generally

sean mclaren seanmac4321 at gmail.com
Wed Jan 23 08:30:00 AEDT 2019


Ascot Only Pre 2018 2018 Index Up
Rider A E A2E A E A2E Base Pre
AARON MITCHELL 63 60.278 1 7 7.439 0.94 0.90033 Down
ALAN KENNEDY 72 68.009 1.1 11 6.572 1.67 1.58099 Up
ANDREW CASTLE 7 8.843 0.8 3 6.635 0.45 0.571192 Down
BEN ALLEN 1 1.184 0.8 1 0.808 1.24 1.465347 Up
BRODIE KIRBY 10 9.934 1.01
CHRIS PARNHAM 66 66.871 1 31 24.706 1.25 1.271315 Up
CLINT JOHNSTON-PORTER 47 47.366 1 15 13.022 1.15 1.160867 Up
CRAIG STAPLES 44 50.424 0.9 5 4.787 1.04 1.196992 Up
DAMIAN LANE 23 47.911 0.5 3 1.769 1.70 3.532652 Up
DAMIEN OLIVER 12 12.301 1 1 0.634 1.58 1.616851 Up
DANIEL STAECK 70 112.417 0.6 14 11.142 1.26 2.017896 Up
DEAN YENDALL 1 0.465 2.15
FIONA BELL 1 5.081 0.2 1 1.553 0.64 3.271732 Up
GLENN SMITH 47 58.289 0.8 3 4.312 0.70 0.862842 Down
JADE MCNAUGHT 1 3.352 0.30
JARRAD NOSKE 145 180.51 0.8 33 20.701 1.59 1.984522 Up
JASON BROWN 140 178.741 0.8 15 9.116 1.65 2.100792 Up
JASON WHITING 173 216.989 0.8 3 12.279 0.24 0.306443 Down
JERRY NOSKE 57 53.198 1.1 4 2.47 1.62 1.511414 Up
JESS EATON 1 0.155 6.45
JOSEPH AZZOPARDI 54 76.486 0.7 17 16.211 1.05 1.485345 Up
JULIEN KOKOTAJLO 1 1.244 0.80
KATE FITZGERALD 7 4.336 1.6 1 1.053 0.95 0.588251 Down
KATE WITTEN 7 6.887 1 3 5.276 0.57 0.559434 Down
LUCAS CAMILLERI 39 61.625 0.6 1 1.411 0.71 1.119864 Up
LUCY WARWICK 59 45.661 1.3 10 10.714 0.93 0.72234 Down
MATTHIEU AUTIER 6 8.187 0.7 2 1.706 1.17 1.599648 Up
MITCHELL PATEMAN 30 28.631 1 10 5.555 1.80 1.718032 Up
PATRICK CARBERY 183 214.733 0.9 14 25.236 0.55 0.650961 Down
PAUL HARVEY 219 235.376 0.9 7 10.433 0.67 0.721119 Down
PETER HALL 76 80.517 0.9 4 16.043 0.25 0.264149 Down
PETER KNUCKEY 173 247.929 0.7 6 7.361 0.82 1.168142 Up
RANDY TAN 25 50.612 0.5 1 2.024 0.49 1.000237 Up
RYAN HILL 73 70.294 1 1 3.736 0.27 0.257744 Down
SHAUN MC GRUDDY 111 146.148 0.8 15 34.434 0.44 0.573553 Down
SHAUN O'DONNELL 173 178.645 1 15 13.413 1.12 1.154809 Up
STEVEN PARNHAM 154 193.277 0.8 7 13.91 0.50 0.631583 Down
TAYLA STONE 5 6.71 0.7 16 11.546 1.39 1.859692 Up
TROY TURNER 172 199.175 0.9 4 8.644 0.46 0.53586 Down
WILLIAM PIKE 471 520.462 0.9 64 58.822 1.09 1.202287 Up

On Tue, Jan 22, 2019 at 10:42 PM Roman <kozza1950 at bigpond.com> wrote:

> Hey Sean,
>
> How’s life?
>
>
>
> I am afraid I am missing the point of your stats. Yes, I can see Peter
> Hall is 0.51 at 1800m but Pike is the same over at 1100m with over 10 times
> the rides by Pike.
>
>
>
> Why haven’t you provided P Hall at all distances? As for his figure of
> 2.04 for 1400m at just 59 rides is no indication, surely?
>
>
>
> Why are the others incomplete?
>
>
>
> Roman Koz
>
>
>
> *From:* Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] *On Behalf Of *sean
> mclaren
> *Sent:* Tuesday, January 22, 2019 4:38 PM
> *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally
>
>
>
> JockeyA2ETable
> AscotTrack
>
> Rider
>
> Distance
>
> Actual
>
> Expected
>
> Rides
>
> A2E
>
> DAMIAN LANE
>
> 1200
>
> 7
>
> 22.25
>
> 178
>
> 0.31
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1000
>
> 3
>
> 20.40
>
> 157
>
> 0.15
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1200
>
> 12
>
> 20.40
>
> 206
>
> 0.59
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1400
>
> 19
>
> 19.39
>
> 222
>
> 0.98
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1600
>
> 11
>
> 7.68
>
> 59
>
> 1.43
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1800
>
> 9
>
> 8.61
>
> 48
>
> 1.05
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1000
>
> 19
>
> 11.83
>
> 150
>
> 1.61
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1200
>
> 10
>
> 8.98
>
> 53
>
> 1.11
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1200
>
> 9
>
> 8.12
>
> 56
>
> 1.11
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1400
>
> 15
>
> 7.37
>
> 59
>
> 2.04
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1600
>
> 18
>
> 22.28
>
> 184
>
> 0.81
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1800
>
> 4
>
> 7.88
>
> 45
>
> 0.51
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1000
>
> 26
>
> 64.45
>
> 381
>
> 0.40
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1100
>
> 26
>
> 35.25
>
> 253
>
> 0.74
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1200
>
> 36
>
> 34.01
>
> 207
>
> 1.06
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1400
>
> 27
>
> 24.39
>
> 159
>
> 1.11
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1600
>
> 11
>
> 40.31
>
> 214
>
> 0.27
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1800
>
> 9
>
> 7.44
>
> 60
>
> 1.21
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1000
>
> 37
>
> 48.42
>
> 332
>
> 0.76
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1100
>
> 41
>
> 80.55
>
> 571
>
> 0.51
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1200
>
> 96
>
> 86.60
>
> 434
>
> 1.11
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1400
>
> 89
>
> 86.57
>
> 487
>
> 1.03
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1500
>
> 26
>
> 26.37
>
> 127
>
> 0.99
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1600
>
> 79
>
> 70.15
>
> 474
>
> 1.13
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1800
>
> 33
>
> 35.14
>
> 159
>
> 0.94
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 2200
>
> 38
>
> 45.77
>
> 246
>
> 0.83
>
>
>
>
>
> Here an extract of a few jocks in WA. The right hand column is the ROI for
> a $1.
>
> Caveat is these rides only include the first 5 in the market. Primitive
> means of extracting
>
> the outliers.
>
>
>
> Essentially the over round is taken out and the markets reset to 100%.
> From there an expected
>
> wins figure is arrived at. And ultimately checked against the actual.
> These have pulled at random.
>
> The first couple are interesting. Remembering these are in the first 5.
>
>
>
> On Mon, Jan 21, 2019 at 5:13 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au>
> wrote:
>
> Tony,
>
>
>
> Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different
> rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.
>
>
>
> LBL
>
>
>
>
>
> 790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to
>
> expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame
>
> covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40%
> advanced
>
> on some others in this race.
>
>
>
> No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than
>
> that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a
>
> horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for
>
> statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a
>
> calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a
> good
>
> ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -
>
> .6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).
>
>
>
> Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is
>
> 0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is
>
> .31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign
>
> that value to it early in the calculation.
>
>
>
> Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of
>
> all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is
> a
>
> jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank
>
> jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so
>
> that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and
>
> I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all
>
> the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I
>
> individually determine an iv.
>
>
>
> There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is
>
> not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends
>
> in the sub $2 range, most of us really.
>
>
>
> This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under
>
> the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in
>
> 1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually
>
> Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is
> again
>
> divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These
>
> numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of
> the
>
> overall stat picture
>
>
>
> Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as
>
> jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from
>
> that.
>
>
>
> Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I
>
> multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.
>
> Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)
>
> Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win
>
> a race
>
> Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.
>
> Dylan Dunn = 1.1
>
>
>
> There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.
>
> This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting
>
> in it, nor do I suggest you do.
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Racing mailing list
> Racing at ausrace.com
> http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com
>
> _______________________________________________
> Racing mailing list
> Racing at ausrace.com
> http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://ausrace.com/pipermail/racing_ausrace.com/attachments/20190123/d66a1b22/attachment.html>


More information about the Racing mailing list