[AusRace] Sportsbet

[L.B.Loveday]

Ok, thanks Tony; yesterday morning's posts did not make it to me, so I
assumed not to anyone. I see they are on the archives. I'll continue to post
with fingers crossed while I am barred from betting with SB.

 

How do you arrive at your selections - multiple rules or?

 

Firstly, SB has to be top odds of the bookies I monitor. Obviously?

Then I have a medley of rules that pick out those that tend to shorten -
shortening does not guarantee winning of course, but you are rationally
indisputably better off long-term getting the early odds rather than the
final about shorteners. When betting to win a fixed amount (eg as imposed by
MBL, well by those who adhere strictly to it like BetZero and unlike
Centrebet, ClassicBet, Crownbet who ignore it at will) the price you get
about winners is obviously irrelevant, but getting better prices about
losers makes you while getting worse prices breaks you; and not even the
best of us knows which will be which.

 

Over a long period, those rules have resulted in selecting horses where the
early Sportsbet place odds average 33% better than the final odds -
yesterday's 74% was way above average - and that is likely enough to make
one a long-term winner. 

 

Why bet place rather than win? Because under MBL you can bet more.  Gosford
7 for example, an unremarkable market: fingers crossed it is readable. It
shows that betting to win $400 the place all runners, you can get more on
all runners than you can betting to win $1k straight out - between 35% and
78% more, and an average 53% more.  

 

Win        Place     Win $1k Place $400

10.00     3.25        111         178

11.00     3.60        100         154

31.00     8.25        33           55

15.00     4.30        71           121

21.00     5.50        50           89

31.00     9.00        33           50

6.50        2.62        182         247

15.00     4.33        71           120

7.00        2.45        167         276

5.00        2.10        250         364

7.00        2.62        167         247

13.00     3.85        83           140

                                                

115%     337%   1319    2041

 

Why not bet both?

 

Cheers,

 

LBL

 

From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com> On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Sunday, 11 March 2018 10:53 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sportsbet

 

Len - for the record, your post yesterday(and the latest, today, as below)
made it to the list and got re-distributed as we expect.

I got the 'disabled because' treatment also, and re subscribed. At least now
I get your mailings.

Previously I saw them in the archives, so hopefully a patch has been applied
and it works like a bought one.

 

How do you arrive at your selections - multiple rules or?

 

Cheers

 

Tony

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2018 5:25 AM
Subject: [AusRace] Sportsbet

 


 
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