<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:x="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:excel" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><!--[if !mso]><style>v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
o\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
w\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
</style><![endif]--><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Tahoma;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0cm;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
p.msonormal0, li.msonormal0, div.msonormal0
{mso-style-name:msonormal;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0cm;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0cm;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
span.EmailStyle18
{mso-style-type:personal;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:black;
font-weight:normal;
font-style:normal;
text-decoration:none none;}
span.EmailStyle19
{mso-style-type:personal;
font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;
color:#1F497D;}
span.EmailStyle21
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:black;
font-weight:normal;
font-style:normal;
text-decoration:none none;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;}
@page WordSection1
{size:612.0pt 792.0pt;
margin:72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Ok, thanks Tony; yesterday morning's posts did not make it to me, so I assumed not to anyone. I see they are on the archives. I'll continue to post with fingers crossed while I am barred from betting with SB.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>How do you arrive at your selections – multiple rules or?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Firstly, SB has to be top odds of the bookies I monitor. Obviously?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Then I have a medley of rules that pick out those that tend to shorten - shortening does not guarantee winning of course, but you are rationally indisputably better off long-term getting the early odds rather than the final about shorteners. When betting to win a fixed amount (eg as imposed by MBL, well by those who adhere strictly to it like BetZero and unlike Centrebet, ClassicBet, Crownbet who ignore it at will) the price you get about winners is obviously irrelevant, but getting better prices about losers makes you while getting worse prices breaks you; and not even the best of us knows which will be which.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Over a long period, those rules have resulted in selecting horses where the early Sportsbet place odds average 33% better than the final odds - yesterday's 74% was way above average - and that is likely enough to make one a long-term winner. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Why bet place rather than win? Because under MBL you can bet more. Gosford 7 for example, an unremarkable market: fingers crossed it is readable. It shows that betting to win $400 the place all runners, you can get more on all runners than you can betting to win $1k straight out - between 35% and 78% more, and an average 53% more. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Win Place Win $1k Place $400<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>10.00 3.25 111 178<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>11.00 3.60 100 154<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>31.00 8.25 33 55<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>15.00 4.30 71 121<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>21.00 5.50 50 89<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>31.00 9.00 33 50<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>6.50 2.62 182 247<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>15.00 4.33 71 120<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>7.00 2.45 167 276<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>5.00 2.10 250 364<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>7.00 2.62 167 247<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>13.00 3.85 83 140<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>115% 337% 1319 2041<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Why not bet both?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Cheers,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>LBL<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> Racing <racing-bounces@ausrace.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Tony Moffat<br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, 11 March 2018 10:53 AM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing@ausrace.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Sportsbet<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Len – for the record, your post yesterday(and the latest, today, as below) made it to the list and got re-distributed as we expect.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>I got the ‘disabled because’ treatment also, and re subscribed. At least now I get your mailings.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Previously I saw them in the archives, so hopefully a patch has been applied and it works like a bought one.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>How do you arrive at your selections – multiple rules or?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> Racing [<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] <b>On Behalf Of </b>L.B.Loveday<br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, March 11, 2018 5:25 AM<br><b>Subject:</b> [AusRace] Sportsbet<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div id=DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=1 cellpadding=0 style='border:none;border-top:solid #D3D4DE 1.0pt'><tr><td width=55 style='width:41.25pt;border:none;padding:9.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=46 height=29 style='width:.4791in;height:.302in' id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://ipmcdn.avast.com/images/icons/icon-envelope-tick-green-avg-v1.png"></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=470 style='width:352.5pt;border:none;padding:9.0pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:13.5pt'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#41424E;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Virus-free. <a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='color:#4453EA'>www.avg.com</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></body></html>