[AusRace] Sportsbet

Mon Mar 12 22:34:27 AEDT 2018

Len - thanks.

The number of price changes for a particular runner is a good
indicator of intent I have found - this information is available from
Dynamic Odds. 

The following shows the number of fluctuations for Adelaide Cup field
today - data from SB,Bet365,Ubet, summed and displayed. This is
post-race, at least or after the jump anyway.

Winner Fanatic had 66 movements, and crowd favourite Jamie Kah on
Raindrops on Roses had 81, it was unplaced but may be worth following
because of the interest in it here, perhaps?

61

Benzini

17

Master Of Arts

49

Double Bluff

66

Fanatic

53

Pretty Punk

48

Jim's Journey

52

Exalted Lightning

44

Like A Carousel

40

O'Lonera

54

Al Haram

30

Ormito

29

Tunes

7

Khezerabad

42

Flying Casino

81

Raindrops On Roses

4

Diamond Grace

46

Cuban Fighter

60

Poppiholla

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

In Saturdays Newmarket, winner RedKirk Warrior had 44 hits, around the
average for a few runners, however Rock Magic had 70, for 4th, so it
may be watched next outing.

It's just another way - this data is after the jump. Leading up to
decision, within the last 2 minutes say, there can be marked changes
to the fluctuations, a great number I mean.

Tote div history may be overdone - Dynamic has this data too. I take
that feed and graph the runner divs as the changes arrive - it's
pretty, but inconclusive.

There is some writing on tracking and predicting dividend settling -
Malcolm Knowles did some of this in The Wizard centre pages, 25+ years
ago and his software ESP does just that, or did. It went awol at
Windows XP or there abouts.

Cheers

Tony

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of
L.B.Loveday
Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2018 9:44 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sportsbet

Ok, thanks Tony; yesterday morning's posts did not make it to me, so I
assumed not to anyone. I see they are on the archives. I'll continue
to post with fingers crossed while I am barred from betting with SB.

How do you arrive at your selections - multiple rules or?

Firstly, SB has to be top odds of the bookies I monitor. Obviously?

Then I have a medley of rules that pick out those that tend to shorten
- shortening does not guarantee winning of course, but you are
rationally indisputably better off long-term getting the early odds
rather than the final about shorteners. When betting to win a fixed
amount (eg as imposed by MBL, well by those who adhere strictly to it
like BetZero and unlike Centrebet, ClassicBet, Crownbet who ignore it
at will) the price you get about winners is obviously irrelevant, but
getting better prices about losers makes you while getting worse
prices breaks you; and not even the best of us knows which will be
which.

Over a long period, those rules have resulted in selecting horses
where the early Sportsbet place odds average 33% better than the final
odds - yesterday's 74% was way above average - and that is likely
enough to make one a long-term winner. 

Why bet place rather than win? Because under MBL you can bet more.
Gosford 7 for example, an unremarkable market: fingers crossed it is
readable. It shows that betting to win $400 the place all runners, you
can get more on all runners than you can betting to win $1k straight
out - between 35% and 78% more, and an average 53% more.  

Win        Place     Win $1k Place $400

10.00     3.25        111         178

11.00     3.60        100         154

31.00     8.25        33           55

15.00     4.30        71           121

21.00     5.50        50           89

31.00     9.00        33           50

6.50        2.62        182         247

15.00     4.33        71           120

7.00        2.45        167         276

5.00        2.10        250         364

7.00        2.62        167         247

13.00     3.85        83           140

115%     337%   1319    2041

Why not bet both?

Cheers,

LBL

From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com
<mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com> > On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Sunday, 11 March 2018 10:53 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
<mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sportsbet

Len - for the record, your post yesterday(and the latest, today, as
below) made it to the list and got re-distributed as we expect.

I got the 'disabled because' treatment also, and re subscribed. At
least now I get your mailings.

Previously I saw them in the archives, so hopefully a patch has been
applied and it works like a bought one.

How do you arrive at your selections - multiple rules or?

Cheers

Tony

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of
L.B.Loveday
Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2018 5:25 AM
Subject: [AusRace] Sportsbet

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