[AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3
Steve
essbee at internode.on.net
Wed Jun 20 09:19:59 AEST 2018
No you don't need a time for each going.
If you dissected the times that Tony put up as an example, you would see
that they are all over the place relatively.
Most people that do it that way get, the same inconsistencies,
And remember that word....relatively.....as it's the most important
thing to consider when doing time
One time for each distance at each track is all you need.
That way your standards will tell you the going, probably more
accurately than the official which is after all just an opinion of
whoever is doing whichever track.
Good luck though as there is so many inaccurate times, wrong distances,
and three zillion ways of giving the section times.
SteveB
On 19/06/2018 11:41 PM, Race Stats wrote:
>
> Hi Nick,
>
> Regarding Len’s suggestions regarding par times, I thought I’d give
> you a little bit of extra information.
>
> Par times by themselves are pretty nebulous as Len suggests.
>
> If you’re familiar with Excel, here is my recommendation.
>
> Often you will find that track record times are often on many races
> one day at a venue, so obviously the track is faster than the rating.
>
> Forget Class records, they mean very little overall.
>
> Take the race times and dissect them into overall time, final
> sectional time and then race time minus sectional time, this will give
> you the pace time.
>
> You MUST have a par time for every going condition not just Soft, you
> need Soft5, Soft6, Soft7.
>
> Look at the top horses that won with fast race time, then fast last
> sectional, then pace time.
>
> You’ll soon see the impact of what is useful and what is not.
>
> You’ll also see where the track rating is obviously wrong when all or
> most races are above that par.
>
> Course manager must lodge the track going prior to 6.50am on race day,
> they cannot change the track rating for the day after that period,
> only the Stewards or Jockeys can suggest to Stewards a change in track
> rating. Ergo, there are many ratings that are not correct.
>
> Lindsay.
>
> *From:*Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] *On Behalf Of
> *norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> *Sent:* Monday, 18 June 2018 9:33 PM
> *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3
>
> Ok thanks Len. Not sure if I'm au fait enough with the concept to come
> up with anything so sophisticated as an algorithm. If I do, you'll be
> my first port of call.
>
> Did fiddle around with ideas by Gavin Haynes a few year's ago but his
> stats must be outdated by now.
>
> For some reason all the replies have come through aggregated which
> makes replying damned confusing.
>
>
>
>
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> 18/06/18, 21:27:22
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>
>
> On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 9:26 PM norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com> <norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> G'day Mike,
>
> Thanks for the suggestion. I got that email too but had
> forgotten all about it. Must be an age thing.
>
>
>
>
> Mailtrack
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> 18/06/18, 21:24:56
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>
>
> On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 8:59 PM <racing-request at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing-request at ausrace.com>> wrote:
>
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> Today's Topics:
>
> 1. Par times (norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>)
> 2. Re: Par times (mikemcbain at tpg.com.au
> <mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au>)
> 3. Re: Par times (L.B.Loveday)
> 4. Re: Par times (Tony Moffat)
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Message: 1
> Date: Sun, 17 Jun 2018 17:34:08 +1000
> From: "norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>"
> <norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>>
> To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: [AusRace] Par times
> Message-ID:
> <CAJfP4b2LkbzL_iqGSn9K+zgy6mwLw1POCwgUSY+pfzH2=rSqgg at mail.gmail.com
> <mailto:rSqgg at mail.gmail.com>>
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>
> Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?
>
>
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> Message: 2
> Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:03:10 +1000
> From: <mikemcbain at tpg.com.au <mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au>>
> To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times
> Message-ID: <001f01d406a0$20e59d80$62b0d880$@tpg.com.au
> <http://tpg.com.au>>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
>
> Norsaint
>
>
>
> Neale Yardley recently made the following comment in an email?.
>
>
>
> ?Again my thanks go to Steven Angelides from PPFA for
> providing the par times. Steven is back in Australia from Hong
> Kong and is touring Australia if anyone would like to catch up
> with him (he is happy to talk about Bet Selector, PPFA, Hong
> Kong or anything else racing related). Venues and dates are
> listed below but please note Steven has a new mobile number
> which is 0413164550. His email is still the same viz
> <mailto:stavros at wn.com.au <mailto:stavros at wn.com.au>>
> stavros at wn.com.au <mailto:stavros at wn.com.au>?
>
>
>
> Might be worth your while asking Steven?
>
>
>
> Mike.
>
>
>
>
>
> From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>> On Behalf Of
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>
> Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 17:34
> To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: [AusRace] Par times
>
>
>
>
> <https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275>
>
>
>
> Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?
>
>
>
>
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> Message: 3
> Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:49:07 +1000
> From: "L.B.Loveday" <lloveday at ozemail.com.au
> <mailto:lloveday at ozemail.com.au>>
> To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times
> Message-ID: <004701d406a6$8ec2dce0$ac4896a0$@ozemail.com.au
> <http://ozemail.com.au>>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
>
> Nick,
>
>
>
> "Par times" is, to me, a nebulous term - they can be
> calculated in various ways, times are affected by track
> condition (not only on the day, but by permanent upgrades such
> as at Gawler), rail positioning, wind direction, riding
> tactics, in-race mishaps such as a fall, the class of horses,
> whether there are zero, one, two? "natural" leaders and
> whether they vie for the lead, weight conditions??
>
>
>
> So I never consider them, but I do have a database of every
> Australian race for the past 20+ years, including:
>
>
>
> Date,
>
> Course,
>
> Distance,
>
> Class,
>
> Limit Weight,
>
> Weight carried by placegetters,
>
> Condition,
>
> No of starters,
>
> Prizemoney,
>
> and of course Time
>
>
>
> You determine an algorithm for calculating par times and I'll
> write a program and send you the results; otherwise you are
> just relying on someone else's methodology, almost certainly
> without knowing the basis of his determinations.
>
>
>
> LBL
>
>
>
> From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>> On Behalf Of
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>
> Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 5:34 PM
> To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: [AusRace] Par times
>
>
>
>
> <https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275>
>
>
>
> Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?
>
>
>
>
> <https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&>
>
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> ------------------------------
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> Message: 4
> Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 18:58:56 +0800
> From: "Tony Moffat" <tonymoffat at bigpond.com
> <mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com>>
> To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times
> Message-ID: <000001d406f3$5b558d60$1200a820$@bigpond.com
> <http://bigpond.com>>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
>
> Saintly ? I don?t know if the other mail made it through ? it
> was big
>
> Is this the type of info you need?
>
> Who does this?
>
> Cheers
>
> Tony
>
>
>
> Ball a rat
>
> 900 (firm) 51.8
>
> 900 (good) 52.5
>
> 900 (soft) 53.4
>
> 900 (heavy) 54.6
>
> 1000 (firm) 56.5
>
> 1000 (good) 57.9
>
> 1000 (soft) 59.1
>
> 1000 (heavy) 1.0.7
>
> 1100 (firm) 1.2.4
>
> 1100 (good) 1.3.9
>
> 1100 (soft) 1.5.7
>
> 1100 (heavy) 1.7.3
>
> 1200 (firm) 1.9.1
>
> 1200 (good) 1.10.3
>
> 1200 (soft) 1.12.0
>
> 1200 (heavy) 1.13.1
>
> 1400 (firm) 1.23.2
>
> 1400 (good) 1.24.5
>
> 1400 (soft) 1.26.3
>
> 1400 (heavy) 1.28.2
>
> 1500 (firm) 1.31.3
>
> 1500 (good) 1.32.6
>
> 1500 (soft) 1.34.3
>
> 1500 (heavy) 1.36.5
>
> 1600 (firm) 1.37.1
>
> 1600 (good) 1.37.8
>
> 1600 (soft) 1.40.0
>
> 1600 (heavy) 1.42.5
>
> 2000 (firm) 2.3.8
>
> 2000 (good) 2.6.1
>
> 2000 (soft) 2.7.7
>
> 2000 (heavy) 2.10.9
>
> 2200 (firm) 2.14.8
>
> 2200 (good) 2.17.7
>
> 2200 (soft) 2.20.6
>
> 2200 (heavy) 2.22.4
>
>
>
> From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>] On Behalf Of
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>
> Sent: Sunday, June 17, 2018 3:34 PM
> To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: [AusRace] Par times
>
>
>
>
> <https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275>
>
>
>
> Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?
>
>
>
>
> <https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&>
>
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> Sender notified by
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