[AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3

Tue Jun 19 23:41:12 AEST 2018

Hi Nick,
Regarding Len’s suggestions regarding par times, I thought I’d give you a little bit of extra information.
Par times by themselves are pretty nebulous as Len suggests.
If you’re familiar with Excel, here is my recommendation.
Often you will find that track record times are often on many races one day at a venue, so obviously the track is faster than the rating.
Forget Class records, they mean very little overall.
Take the race times and dissect them into overall time, final sectional time and then race time minus sectional time, this will give you the pace time.
You MUST have a par time for every going condition not just Soft, you need Soft5, Soft6, Soft7.
Look at the top horses that won with fast race time, then fast last sectional, then pace time.
You’ll soon see the impact of what is useful and what is not.
You’ll also see where the track rating is obviously wrong when all or most races are above that par.
Course manager must lodge the track going prior to 6.50am on race day, they cannot change the track rating for the day after that period, only the Stewards or Jockeys can suggest to Stewards a change in track rating. Ergo, there are many ratings that are not correct.
Lindsay.

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
Sent: Monday, 18 June 2018 9:33 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3

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Ok thanks Len. Not sure if I'm au fait enough with the concept to come up with anything so sophisticated as an algorithm. If I do, you'll be my first port of call.
Did fiddle around with ideas by Gavin Haynes a few year's ago but his stats must be outdated by now.
For some reason all the replies have come through aggregated which makes replying damned confusing.

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On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 9:26 PM norsaintpublishing at gmail.com<mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com> <norsaintpublishing at gmail.com<mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>> wrote:
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G'day Mike,
        Thanks for the suggestion. I got that email too  but had forgotten all about it. Must be an age thing.

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Today's Topics:

   1. Par times (norsaintpublishing at gmail.com<mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>)
   2. Re: Par times (mikemcbain at tpg.com.au<mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au>)
   3. Re: Par times (L.B.Loveday)
   4. Re: Par times (Tony Moffat)

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Message: 1
Date: Sun, 17 Jun 2018 17:34:08 +1000
From: "norsaintpublishing at gmail.com<mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>" <norsaintpublishing at gmail.com<mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com<mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times
Message-ID:
        <CAJfP4b2LkbzL_iqGSn9K+zgy6mwLw1POCwgUSY+pfzH2=rSqgg at mail.gmail.com<mailto:rSqgg at mail.gmail.com>>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"

Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?

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Message: 2
Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:03:10 +1000
From: <mikemcbain at tpg.com.au<mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au>>
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com<mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times
Message-ID: <001f01d406a0$20e59d80$62b0d880$@tpg.com.au<http://tpg.com.au>>
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Norsaint

Neale Yardley recently made the following comment in an email?.

?Again my thanks go to Steven Angelides from PPFA for providing the par times. Steven is back in Australia from Hong Kong and is touring Australia if anyone would like to catch up with him (he is happy to talk about Bet Selector, PPFA, Hong Kong or anything else racing related). Venues and dates are listed below but please note Steven has a new mobile number which is 0413164550. His email is still the same viz  <mailto:stavros at wn.com.au<mailto:stavros at wn.com.au>> stavros at wn.com.au<mailto:stavros at wn.com.au>?

Might be worth your while asking Steven?

Mike.

From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com<mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>> On Behalf Of norsaintpublishing at gmail.com<mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 17:34
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com<mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times

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Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?

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Message: 3
Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:49:07 +1000
From: "L.B.Loveday" <lloveday at ozemail.com.au<mailto:lloveday at ozemail.com.au>>
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com<mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times
Message-ID: <004701d406a6$8ec2dce0$ac4896a0$@ozemail.com.au<http://ozemail.com.au>>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"

Nick,

"Par times" is, to me, a nebulous term - they can be calculated in various ways, times are affected by track condition (not only on the day, but by permanent upgrades such as at Gawler), rail positioning, wind direction, riding tactics, in-race mishaps such as a fall, the class of horses, whether there are zero, one, two? "natural" leaders and whether they vie for the lead, weight conditions??

So I never consider them, but I do have a database of every Australian race for the past 20+ years,  including:

Date,

Course,

Distance,

Class,

Limit Weight,

Weight carried by placegetters,

Condition,

No of starters,

Prizemoney,

and of course Time

You determine an algorithm for calculating par times and I'll write a program and send you the results; otherwise you are just relying on someone else's methodology, almost certainly without knowing the basis of his determinations.

LBL

From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com<mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>> On Behalf Of norsaintpublishing at gmail.com<mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 5:34 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com<mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times

  <https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275>

Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?

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Message: 4
Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 18:58:56 +0800
From: "Tony Moffat" <tonymoffat at bigpond.com<mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com>>
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com<mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times
Message-ID: <000001d406f3$5b558d60$1200a820$@bigpond.com<http://bigpond.com>>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"

Saintly ? I don?t know if the other mail made it through ? it was big

Is this the type of info you need?

Who does this?

Cheers

Tony

Ball a rat

900 (firm) 51.8

900 (good) 52.5

900 (soft) 53.4

900 (heavy) 54.6

1000 (firm) 56.5

1000 (good) 57.9

1000 (soft) 59.1

1000 (heavy) 1.0.7

1100 (firm) 1.2.4

1100 (good) 1.3.9

1100 (soft) 1.5.7

1100 (heavy) 1.7.3

1200 (firm) 1.9.1

1200 (good) 1.10.3

1200 (soft) 1.12.0

1200 (heavy) 1.13.1

1400 (firm) 1.23.2

1400 (good) 1.24.5

1400 (soft) 1.26.3

1400 (heavy) 1.28.2

1500 (firm) 1.31.3

1500 (good) 1.32.6

1500 (soft) 1.34.3

1500 (heavy) 1.36.5

1600 (firm) 1.37.1

1600 (good) 1.37.8

1600 (soft) 1.40.0

1600 (heavy) 1.42.5

2000 (firm) 2.3.8

2000 (good) 2.6.1

2000 (soft) 2.7.7

2000 (heavy) 2.10.9

2200 (firm) 2.14.8

2200 (good) 2.17.7

2200 (soft) 2.20.6

2200 (heavy) 2.22.4

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com<mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>] On Behalf Of norsaintpublishing at gmail.com<mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, June 17, 2018 3:34 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com<mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times

  <https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275>

Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?

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