[AusRace] 450,000 Races Analysed .... the results

Sun Feb 25 09:54:43 AEDT 2018

G’day Len,

Yes, hope you’re going well.

Many of our ‘mates’ from the Randwick Auditorium days are now out of the picture, of course, Mark Ry… quite a few years ago and most recently, Craig Nug… left Tabcorp.

I’ll pass your comment back to my source, he’s meticulous, but I think it is because he’s run 49 different selection methods across that dataset.

So there may be 80,000 races (or whatever) and he has looked at the results from one method, eg ‘Top rated from ratings, with next 3 rated’ and run it across RewardBet’s brain for those 80,000 races (or whatever).

Then he’s looked at taking top 2 for 1st, next 2. Or Favourite for 1st with three random weighted selections for places, etc. But I will confirm.

He’s tried to play it as many possible ways as he can - he subscribes and has access to most of the major ratings (eg: R2Win, etc) and I know his data is on the edge of what the best do.

Nonetheless, what I found very interesting was we ran the same analysis on 35,000 races a few years ago and, like you, I’m aware that things change in the TAB Ecosystem. 

But it appears that as much as things change, other things stay the same, as the results are as good, if not better, that those previous results.

The other interesting thing is that most corporates have changed their bet-back exotics methodology since then and whereas many of them used to bet-back to get the rebate, now they are holding onto the bets so the dividends are theoretically better (if the smarter punters are betting exotics with corporates, like RB customers do).

The additional return from just WIN betting was also very surprising. It looks like the average advantage has pushed up a bit more over that period (of betting proportionately across WIN) which again may be a combination of bookie bet-back policy (with the many tote derivative products) and data getting better (so more people are betting at the sharper end of the market, where the proportional advantage is higher) so that less outsiders are getting up (ie: the market is better informed).

Best, Greg

> On 25 Feb 2018, at 7:47 am, L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au> wrote:
> 
>  
> ".. you can’t argue with the sample size"
>  
> Good day Greg; long time.
>  
> I don't know his data base, so I can't argue with his sample size, but I can question the relevancy.
>  
> 450k Australian Galloping races takes us back to 1995, maybe even further back as you only considered races on which TAB bet and they don't bet on all races - an extreme example, TAB bet on 14 race meetings on 7/11/2017 out of 43 meetings that day (of course they had fewer races than Flem, Rand …).
>  
> But going back 23 years weights TAB analyses  towards the good old days before TAB increased the take-outs (eg Trifecta 16% to 21%). The expansion of on-line betting, mobile apps, overseas syndicates, better information, faster computers, faster communications, rebates to big punters…. are factors that make, to my mind such outdated data fairly irrelevant.  Then there is the 20% drop in TAB turnover in just the last 2 years.
>  
> PAUSE - 
> I thought I'd better look at https://about.rewardbet.com/better-returns/ <https://about.rewardbet.com/better-returns/>, before posting and I read there that the analysis was of 456,828 races from 2007-2018.
> I did not read further, because, Greg, there were nowhere near "Around 450,000 Aus galloping races" let alone that many with TAB betting between 2007-2018, so now I WILL "argue with the sample size".
>  
> Cheers 
>  
> LBL
>  
> From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>] On Behalf Of Greg Conroy
> Sent: Saturday, 24 February 2018 12:01 AM
> To: Ausrace Racing <racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: [AusRace] 450,000 Races Analysed .... the results
>  
> Quiet list,
>  
> REALLY enjoying the historical anecdotes and stories though! Thanks Tony.
>  
> If this was a facebook page, I’m sure you’d have hundreds of likes! 
>  
> I wanted to share something with the #ausrace #intelligentsia
>  
> A professional punter I know, with one of Oz’s best databases, has analysed RewardBet’s staking across essentially EVERY method he can think of.
>  
> From single win bets to a myriad of ratings and other ways to bet (pyramid 2 x 4 x 5) etc.
>  
> Around 450,000 Aus galloping races.
>  
>  
> I present you the results: https://about.rewardbet.com/better-returns/ <https://about.rewardbet.com/better-returns/>
>  
>  
> I’m sure this will bring up a flurry of “staking” related comments but you can’t argue with the sample size.
>  
> AND it’s ONLY based on NSW TAB dividends :-)
>  
>  
> Finally, we’ve now been GRANTED a PATENT in EIGHT countries for our method (including AUS, as you’d know).
>  
> If I wanted punters to be more engaged with my operation (whether tote or bookie or virtual, etc) then I know how I’d do it …. provide a faster, smarter betting experience that is proven to #winmore.
>  
>  
> Cheers, Greg.
>  
>  
>  
>  
>  
>  
> _______________________________________________
> Racing mailing list
> Racing at ausrace.com <mailto:Racing at ausrace.com>
> http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com <http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com>
Greg Conroy, Inventor of Award Winning and Free:
www.rewardbet.com   … more: http://promo.rewardbet.com/ <http://promo.rewardbet.com/>

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://ausrace.com/pipermail/racing_ausrace.com/attachments/20180225/5b64748b/attachment.html>