[AusRace] They never let up re crops, do they?

Thu Dec 6 15:01:34 AEDT 2018

I wasn't aware MP was up; jockeys come out in the program wash. MP is a good jockey for me, as while I don't lay, her poor record means I rate the horses she rides lesser than if ridden by, say, LJMeech or SBarr, who rate in the top 2%. I don't care about anything other than how one would do backing them - 26.0 average about horses winning 5% of the time leads to a comfortable lifestyle while 1.95 about horses that win 50% leads to a park bench. I'm not suggesting they are as good as, say, JBowman, but you would have done better backing them than backing JB, and I'm a punter, not an owner or trainer.

It's as simple as horses with certain types of names are overbet; others with certain other types of names are underbet. I did the analysis years ago and have not checked it out lately - will do so anon; maybe

But a girly name in the Oaks! Has to be overbet on the TAB, as MP has been since the MC. In MP's case there is the extra factor that boys being boys and MP being, again in JBCummings' words "a pretty little thing", MP got an easier time in races (not suggesting collusion, just nature) than, say, Samuel Payne, but after her MC spiel that ended.

Remember when DBeadman made his comeback in 2000, after his ministry sojourn? Came up massive "unders" on the TAB every race for yonks.

From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com> On Behalf Of sean mclaren
Sent: Thursday, 6 December 2018 1:11 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] They never let up re crops, do they?

And Len I see it broke it's maiden status the start before at Avoca wining by 4.5 lengths. And it then went up in distance by circa 3 furlongs. Challenging to say the least, but obviously not to your computer and the trainer. Interesting the horse wasn't as forward as your computer would have liked? 

On 6 Dec 2018 11:51 am, "sean mclaren" <seanmac4321 at gmail.com <mailto:seanmac4321 at gmail.com> > wrote:

Len

Re miners miss I see that she was ridden by your favourite jockey. Michelle Payne. 

Double up? 

Rgds Sean

On Thu, 6 Dec 2018 06:52 L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au <mailto:lloveday at ozemail.com.au>  wrote:

Phil,

" following the Manuel bros..". I remember a particular occasion when Michael Webster played his "game" at Balaklava - JManuel started his run around the ring with a bet with Webster, many eyes watching, Webster drastically turned down a price, some owners of the eyes (not you I hope) rushed to bet that horse with other bookies while Manuel continued around the ring backing his horse, which was not the one Webster wound in - that was done to fool the eyes, including those of other bookies.

I used to closely watch the Manuels and other significant players and if they backed a horse I wanted, I'd be one of those rushing to get set with another bookie, but if it was not one I wanted, I'd smile and wait for mine to hopefully drift. So many different tactics, and as the ex-Manager, Premium Customer Services said of the 7 or so in the Randwick HV room, everyone has a different approach, but they can all win. But they would not, could not, all win if they all had the same system, which is why I read Scott carefully and chose to take a different approach.

How easily and quickly things can change was brought home pointedly to me when JBCummings was quoted as saying that racing tactics had changed and horses now much more needed to be leading/on pace (not that his suddenly did). There was an almost "overnight" reflection of that in odds and another edge reduced for me. 

In the Flemington Oaks, 3rd place getter Miner's Miss was predictably massive "unders" on Vic TAB (26.0/5.1) cf BetZero (151/23) and BF (201/18), unusual in a $1million race. Maybe Walter Gor Old ("Sepharial") had something when he wrote in "The Silver Key" of the influence of names - the reason it was predictable is imo much simpler than what he wrote.

LBL

From: PhilM <punter at internode.on.net <mailto:punter at internode.on.net> > 
Sent: Tuesday, 4 December 2018 6:55 PM
To: racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> 
Subject: Re: They never let up re crops, do they?

"You'll remember Bob Robinson, the IBM salesman who had access to and used a computer before they were commonly available, and was so successful he had a crowd following him to copy his bets (you still here Phil?)"

Yes Len, I haven't gone away just yet.... and quite correct, I was one of the most avid followers of "Mr Magic", Shirley and Co. .....to the point he referred to me as "bindi eyes" ;-) Like you, I changed betting strategies over the years many times, from following Robertson, following the Manuel bros; getting massive overs using teletext when interstate TAB's put up approximates, betting trebles and quadrellas for years based on early TAB odds just by comparing paper prices, then Betfair gave me the biggest lift possible in 2001 with some amazing returns in the first few years, flipping from place betting, to taking any overs bookies gave as compared to Betfair, moving from British racing, to Aussie racing as bookies closed down accounts, to correct score and 1st half/2nd half soccer odds for years until TABCorp finally woke up they were giving money away, then back to Aussie racing again. It finally got to the point that the hours worked were not worth the returns gained. I guess I stood still and got run over! I've had one bet in six months, the winner of the Melbourne Cup and have pretty much lost all interest if I can no longer make a decent dollar. Happy on the aged pension now with enough funds to tide me over and a wife that's more than happy as my "carer".

If you are still going well Len, then you've likely outdone every gambler out there! Congratulations!

Phil M

p.s. Sounds as if Bob Robertson (Robinson?) has fallen a long way to be called a "silly old bugger" by some bookie, betting $5 e/w! Seriously?

_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com <mailto:Racing at ausrace.com> 
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://ausrace.com/pipermail/racing_ausrace.com/attachments/20181206/a8948b38/attachment.html>