[AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

[Tony Moffat]

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian
circuit is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly
does here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made
available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that
determined or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It
describes a scientific study of competitive running and develops a
mathematical model which balances
 the energy supply from both anaerobic and aerobic sources with the
energy required to accelerate the body, sustain running, and overcome
air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between
distance, time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be
evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily
adapted to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to
assess performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on
race time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings)
and form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the
development of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end
of the book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on
sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set
race where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race
and their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as
favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in
the village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead
up runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top
raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production
between races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next
with a lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further
advantage arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that
knowledge, which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent
"form" when the "unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race
Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than
in the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most
races, so the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally
run at a faster pace than their other similar distance black type
races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting
that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the
handicap race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the
crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so
many horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly
makes a difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first
if they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to
every other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences
are minimal.
Lindsay




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