[AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Thu May 11 23:09:44 AEST 2017

Tony,

Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is invaluable to
calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.

Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals, horse
stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that section 
(you now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and drafting. You
can observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.

Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the practical
details and that available energy is not produced evenly. 
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that horse
differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels rise. 
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it does not
happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle also.

I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing what
things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you cut
out 90% of racing.

Best wishes,
Robert

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian circuit
is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly does
here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that determined
or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It describes a
scientific study of competitive running and develops a mathematical model
which balances  the energy supply from both anaerobic and aerobic sources
with the energy required to accelerate the body, sustain running, and
overcome air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between distance,
time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily adapted
to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to assess
performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on race
time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings) and
form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the development
of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end of the
book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set race
where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race and
their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in the
village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead up
runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production between
races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next with a
lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further advantage
arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that knowledge,
which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent "form" when the
"unfancied" horse races next.

Robert

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in
the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most races, so
the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally run at
a faster pace than their other similar distance black type races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the handicap
race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the crowd at the
finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so many
horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly makes a
difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first if
they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to every
other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences are
minimal.
Lindsay

_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com

_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com

_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com