[AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

[Robert Ford]

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production between
races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next with a
lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further advantage
arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that knowledge,
which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent "form" when the
"unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in
the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most races, so
the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally run at
a faster pace than their other similar distance black type races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the handicap
race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the crowd at the
finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so many
horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly makes a
difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first if
they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to every
other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences are
minimal.
Lindsay




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