[AusRace] test

[PhilM]

	Thanks Doug... hope this gets through to everyone, I'd love some
feedback.........

	I posted this article a week ago at least but never saw it come back
into my e-mail box as an Ausrace post, so I'll send again with some
editing.... 

	It's all hype as far as Centrebet accepting big bets go! William
Hill/Centrebet, Crownbet,  Classicbet, TopSport, Luxbet, Unibet all
have computerised systems running now where they will never be top
odds on any racehorse when betting first opens.  My feeling is that
they are working through Dynamic Odds. All of them wait for at least
two bookies to put up their odds, almost always in order of TAB.com.au
which then get hit, with Sportsbet most times waiting to see their
odds coming in second,. Bet365, who don't care less about either of
them and throw up their own opinions, either before or after the other
two, except trying to get on for more than pennies is the problem with
them. TattsBet once were game to put up their prices at times before
these three but that seems to have stopped in recent weeks. I have not
followed Ladbrokes for a long time but they would sometimes put up
odds first but the very instant another bookie put up their market
Ladbrokes would quite often dramatically change their odds in close
line with this bookie. 

	I think it's getting to a point where it's like the stock market high
frequency trading systems, these bookies are moving so rapidly to
adjust their odds and I guarantee you that most times William Hill/
Centrebet, Crownbet,  Classicbet, TopSport, Luxbet, Unibet, Ladbrokes
are not taking a single bet, regardless of what early fluctuations you
see from them through Dynamic Odds. You can never take notice of their
odds changes as if they have taken big bets on these horses... they
have absolutely not! 

	 For example, Warwick Farm race 1 tlast Saturday TAB.com.au puts up
their odds... 

	 Single Bullet 2.1 

	 Callmetrouble 8 

	 Colesberg  11 

	 Radiant Choice 4.6 

	 Dunaton 101 

	 Te Amo  3.5 

	 Charlie Chap 26 

	 Bet365 on this occasion had their odds up before TABcorp , a huge
difference with some..... 

	 Single Bullet 1.4 

	 Callmetrouble 8 

	 Colesberg  16 

	 Radiant Choice 6.0 

	 Dunaton 101 

	 Te Amo  60 

	 Charlie Chap 101 

	 Sportsbet came in later with this race.... 

	 Single Bullet 1.45 

	 Callmetrouble 11 

	 Colesberg  14 

	 Radiant Choice 6.0 

	 Dunaton 101 

	 Te Amo  5.5 

	 Charlie Chap 67 

	 Crownbet and Centrebet/Hill both came in to the market when it
settled a lot closer and their odds were both set around half way
between these three above if there is variation, if prices were the
same for the three they might give equal odds, but never higher odds.
The very moment say Sportsbet shortens their odds... these list of
followers immediately do the same without a bet being written, making
sure they are under top odds or perfectly in between the high and low
odds elsewhere! With Hill and Crown the change is almost
instantaneous. They have zero opinion of their own, their computerised
system has them smashing the odds without a single bet being struck.
For a month or two Hill actually took on at least one horse in a race
at both Melbourne and Sydney tracks and would be top odds, but that
ended weeks ago now. 

	I believe Sportsbet sometimes plays games with these followers,
dropping the odds on something without a bet being taken and watch the
rest follow like the sheep they are. I think there is big opportunity
here for those that have an accurate assessment of any race to
manipulate the odds and catch these weak mongrels out. I hope it's
happening a lot already! Recently I did a little test with three bets
on the same horse at the same time with Tabcorp, Luxbet, Topsport...
all to win under $100. They all came off the odds, and Hill, Crown and
Unibet all dropped odds in unison without a bet being taken. Anyone
would think there was a massive plunge in the early markets, not bets
to win a total of under $300! 

	So yeah, you might get on with Hill/Centrebet, but I assure you that
you'll get better odds elsewhere at that very moment in time. 

	Phil M
----- Original Message -----
From: "AusRace Racing Discussion List" 
To:
Cc:
Sent:Wed, 11 Jan 2017 15:22:44 +1000
Subject:[AusRace] test

message received Phil  

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