[AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)

[Tony Moffat]

Greg – thanks

 

>From an off list response - Another rider is 6 wins in last 26 discards although names, dates are otw the best tote + BF sum to $26 for three of those wins which proves the point a little bit.

 

Cheers

 

Tony

 

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Greg Conroy
Sent: Thursday, 24 September 2020 4:12 PM
To: Ausrace Racing <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)

 

I asked a colleague to run this for Oliver through his database:

 



 

"Oliver. 1.4.2015 onward so slightly more than the last 5 years or so where DOliver rode the horse last start and is did not ride it this start. At my prices and BFSP discount.13.9% SR and 15.9% POT.”









Greg Conroy, Inventor of Award Winning and Free:

 

www.rewardbet.com <http://www.rewardbet.com>    … read more: https://about.rewardbet.com/

 

And author of https://winwithoutform.com

 

 

 

 





On 24 Sep 2020, at 5:03 pm, Tony Moffat <tonymoffat at bigpond.com <mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com> > wrote:

 

Len - as always, dependable, and thanks.

I get 9429 = 2328 + 7101

Ollie on a winner = (2328/100) * 17.6  equals 410 winners from 2328 rides
and he needs  $5.70 each runner (2328/410 = 5.70)

Joe Average (aka NotOllie) = (7101/100) * 13.7 equals 973 winners from 7101
rides and s/he needs $7.30 each runner (7101/973 = 7.30)

Ollie when placed = (2328/100) * 43.2 equals 1006 placed so 2328/1006 =
$2.30(5/4 - 5/1)
NotOllie when placed = (7101/100) * 36.3 equals 2578 placed so 7101/2578 =
$2.75 (7/4 - 7/1)

Cheers

Tony.  

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
Sent: Thursday, 24 September 2020 12:47 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)

Tony, 

I have an easily accessed data base with jockey this start and last start
for the past 20 years, with my ratings of both jockeys, which will be
different to others' jockey ratings, which makes agreement as to who is a
"top jockey" impossible - and assessing someone as top based on rating will
mean at some times a jockey may be rated "top", at others, not top. 

So for DOliver:

9429 horses DOliver rode last start,

This start DOliver again rides:

2328 starts, 17.6% win, 43.2% place, return at level stake SP 78%, at my
100% normalised SP - 90%

This start a different jockey:

7101 starts, 13.7% win, 36.3% place, return at level stake SP 79%, at my
100% normalised SP - 104%.







-----Original Message-----
From: Racing On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Thursday, 24 September 2020 10:09 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: [AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)

Is there a database gun who can assist with this query please?

If Damien Oliver rides one and it fails then DOESN'T ride it next time out,
how often does it win/place it's next race?

It doesn't have to be Ollie, it's just that he rides so many.

It doesn't have to be a long term study either, say since Mid August until
recently. 

Why? - it's the basis of a system from the 60's that I want to tell you
about.

The rules:
Top jockey rode the selection last start.
This start the jockey is an apprentice, or another jockey (rated top or
not).

The authors claim 60% place at 14/1+ win - (and they are selling this secret
to us).

Cheers

Tony






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