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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Greg – thanks<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>From an off list response - Another rider is 6 wins in last 26 discards although names, dates are otw the best tote + BF sum to $26 for three of those wins which proves the point a little bit.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Greg Conroy<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, 24 September 2020 4:12 PM<br><b>To:</b> Ausrace Racing <racing@ausrace.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I asked a colleague to run this for Oliver through his database:<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><img width=640 height=350 id=AE82A8D9-83B3-4F78-943B-025A44609C5A src="cid:image002.png@01D692AE.C7B48670"><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>"<span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1D1C1D;background:#F8F8F8'>Oliver. 1.4.2015 onward so slightly more than the last 5 years or so where DOliver rode the horse last start and is did not ride it this start. At my prices and BFSP discount.13.9% SR and 15.9% POT.”</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1D1C1D;background:#F8F8F8'><br><br></span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1D1C1D;background:#F8F8F8'><br><br></span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Greg Conroy, Inventor of Award Winning and Free:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#425AF6'><a href="http://www.rewardbet.com">www.rewardbet.com</a> … read more: </span><span style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black'><a href="https://about.rewardbet.com/">https://about.rewardbet.com/</a></span><span style='color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>And author of<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><a href="https://winwithoutform">https://winwithoutform</a>.com<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><br><br><o:p></o:p></p><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><p class=MsoNormal>On 24 Sep 2020, at 5:03 pm, Tony Moffat <<a href="mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com">tonymoffat@bigpond.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Len - as always, dependable, and thanks.<br><br>I get 9429 = 2328 + 7101<br><br>Ollie on a winner = (2328/100) * 17.6 equals 410 winners from 2328 rides<br>and he needs $5.70 each runner (2328/410 = 5.70)<br><br>Joe Average (aka NotOllie) = (7101/100) * 13.7 equals 973 winners from 7101<br>rides and s/he needs $7.30 each runner (7101/973 = 7.30)<br><br>Ollie when placed = (2328/100) * 43.2 equals 1006 placed so 2328/1006 =<br>$2.30(5/4 - 5/1)<br>NotOllie when placed = (7101/100) * 36.3 equals 2578 placed so 7101/2578 =<br>$2.75 (7/4 - 7/1)<br><br>Cheers<br><br>Tony. <br><br>-----Original Message-----<br>From: Racing [<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday<br>Sent: Thursday, 24 September 2020 12:47 PM<br>To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>Subject: Re: [AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)<br><br>Tony, <br><br>I have an easily accessed data base with jockey this start and last start<br>for the past 20 years, with my ratings of both jockeys, which will be<br>different to others' jockey ratings, which makes agreement as to who is a<br>"top jockey" impossible - and assessing someone as top based on rating will<br>mean at some times a jockey may be rated "top", at others, not top. <br><br>So for DOliver:<br><br>9429 horses DOliver rode last start,<br><br>This start DOliver again rides:<br><br>2328 starts, 17.6% win, 43.2% place, return at level stake SP 78%, at my<br>100% normalised SP - 90%<br><br>This start a different jockey:<br><br>7101 starts, 13.7% win, 36.3% place, return at level stake SP 79%, at my<br>100% normalised SP - 104%.<br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>-----Original Message-----<br>From: Racing On Behalf Of Tony Moffat<br>Sent: Thursday, 24 September 2020 10:09 AM<br>To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>Subject: [AusRace] Ollie discards - a system (maybe)<br><br>Is there a database gun who can assist with this query please?<br><br>If Damien Oliver rides one and it fails then DOESN'T ride it next time out,<br>how often does it win/place it's next race?<br><br>It doesn't have to be Ollie, it's just that he rides so many.<br><br>It doesn't have to be a long term study either, say since Mid August until<br>recently. <br><br>Why? - it's the basis of a system from the 60's that I want to tell you<br>about.<br><br>The rules:<br>Top jockey rode the selection last start.<br>This start the jockey is an apprentice, or another jockey (rated top or<br>not).<br><br>The authors claim 60% place at 14/1+ win - (and they are selling this secret<br>to us).<br><br>Cheers<br><br>Tony<br><br><br><br><br><br><br>--<br>This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.<br><a href="https://www.avg.com">https://www.avg.com</a><br><br><br>_______________________________________________<br>Racing mailing list<br><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com">Racing@ausrace.com</a><br><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com">http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</a><br><br><br>_______________________________________________<br>Racing mailing list<br><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com">Racing@ausrace.com</a><br><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com">http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</a><br><br><br>-- <br>This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.<br><a href="https://www.avg.com">https://www.avg.com</a><br><br><br>_______________________________________________<br>Racing mailing list<br><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com">Racing@ausrace.com</a><br><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com">http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</a><o:p></o:p></p></div></div></blockquote></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div><div id="DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2"><br />
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