[AusRace] Ace's Method

[Tony Moffat]

Ace's Method

Ace was a tipster for a brief time in Melbourne in the early 70's. This
system is on two typewritten pages, it is perhaps the only copy.

Ace makes the observation that the tipsters poll is a good indicator of the
capability of a horse to win a race. 

The author does not discuss how they pick horses to include in a tipster
poll only that the tips, and those others of that ilk combined, will
generally find the winner.

Further, Ace concludes that after all the tips are collated and displayed
then a scratching occurs this somehow enables the remaining horses in the
poll.  Those remaining strengthen their hold on the race outcome. The
increase in SP of a remaining horse can be used to advantage in making a
profit.

Often, Ace says more often, long priced winners arrive in a race where
(poll) horses have been scratched and it is these contests that the shrewd
punter should bet on.

There are no tables, charts, statistics from which a conclusion can be
drawn. Ace said it, it must be so. This is how system authors are.

There are no rules, only conclusions per se

(a)          Consider all horses in the tipsters poll - The Age poll of 16
tipsters are used here.

(b)          Record the pre race price of all runners in the poll

(c)           On race day if there is a scratching the race can be checked
for suitability only if the scratched horse  had a pre-race price.

(d)          Compare the pre-race price (from the newspaper) with the
displayed price in the ring on race day and record those horses whose price
has increased. 

(e)          A horse whose price has increased becomes a system horse. There
may be two or more. Back them to ensure a profit, win or place or each way.

There are two paragraphs on why the chosen horse becomes a viable bet. If a
poll horse is scratched it is natural that the remaining horses will shorten
in price to counteract that scratching.

A horse outside the poll, if scratched, may not affect the market to any
extent, its removal may result in all prices being shortened across the
board.

A horse, in the poll, that lengthens in price becomes good value because it
was good enough to be chosen initially and now one of its rivals has been
removed (the scratching), nothing else otherwise has changed.

Ace reports that during the 1972-73 racing season there were 61 races bet on
and there were 15 winners, 13 seconds and thirds  and 28 total places but no
other data (average price would help)

This another way to qualify the runners in the tipsters poll (a follow on
from The Editors Method)

Results are from the following season

(a)          There has to be a scratching

(b)          The tipsters poll horse price has to lengthen

11/8 MR8 SCR Split Up - Ballarat (6/4-13/4-3/1) 1st

25/8 MR6  SCR PORTICO - Gay Icarus (7/1-8/1-12/1) 2nd

01/09 MR9 SCR  Trifling +1 - Dorica Lass (6/1- 6/1-12/1) 1st

8/9 MR5 -SCR Felipa - Taj Rossi (8/1-12/1-10/1) 1st

8/9 MR6 - SCR LEGOGLIO- Rickshaws Luck (7/1-10/1-9/1) 1st

27/9 MR2- SCR Showhonour - Gala Comet (12/1-20/1-16/1-33/1) 1st

29/9 MR2 SCR Replied - Mellition (8/1-11/1 tote) 1st

27/10 Cox Plate  SCR SOBAR, GRAND CIDIUM - Swell Time (15/1-10/1-20/1-10/1)
2nd..Magnifique (7/1 -12/1) Unp)

Cheers

 

Tony

 

 

 

 



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