[AusRace] Pop's Way - a system

[Tony Moffat]

This was an early attempt at rating runners off their form.

Pop worked from a base of 8 stone 8 ounces (his notes say 8st 5ozs and 8 and
a half stone) No horse handicapped at less than 8st 8ozs (it's 54 kgs) was
considered and no race was handicapped if horses with that weight were
entered.
In the second part the length of a race horse is 7 feet for fillies/mares, 9
feet for males - any examples use 2.75 metres as length (it's 9 feet) and
finish is capped at 9

Pop theorized that horses carrying more than 54 kg were starting to be
affected by their weight. His thinking was in line with the writing of
Newton and Plante in their books 'Turf Topics'
Each 1.5kg greater than 54kg impeded the runner 1 length - eg finish 9 =
finish value 5.33 lens IMPORTANT. Ordinarily a 9 finish would show a finish
value of 6 lens however Pop reduced the finish by 1 as it was believed this
was the position of the 9 horse at the finish, 8 lengths back. This was a
discussion point back then
He also believed that runners were impeded incrementally by the wider their
barriers. He concluded it was .10 (point 10) of a length for each barrier -
eg barrier 8 = 8/10 = .8 length

The finish position of a runner should be amended by the application of
values for finish and barrier. In essence the system aligns all runners in
the race as if they carried 54kg and started in barrier 1 in their form
race.

Example 
Finished 7th carrying 57 from barrier 7
Finish is amended by deducting 1 = 6
Weight is amended by deducting 54 from 57 - 57 less 54 = 3 then dividing
that by 1.5 to get its amended/impeded weight value = 2
Barrier correction is applied - 7/10 = .7

Sum
6 minus 2 minus .7 = 3.3 the amended finish position for this horse. This
shows/demonstrates/illustrates that if this runner had started from barrier
1 and carried 54kg it would have finished 3.3 from the winner. 

Future race
Today it is starting from barrier 2 and carrying 59kg
Barrier 2 = 2/10 - .2 length
Weight 59-54 = 5/1.5 = 3.33
Sum .2 + 3.33 = 3.53

It has a value of 3.3 calculated from its form race
It has a potential value of 3.53 in its upcoming race

In the second part there is a demonstration of calculating the pace of the
race from its form value. 

Another way - ccertainly

Pop was aware of my interest in things horse racing and might ask for a
rated to win runner sometimes. He drove a Rolls Royce, at work, a red
Sentinel shunter purloined from some depot on the North Coast apparently.
This beast would come out of the rail yard in reverse, across Sloane Street,
and curl into the wool store where I worked as a lumper, and bump noisily
into the stopper near the rear wall, then the offside would shout 'whoa'
when I thought he could have been a little earlier with that. 48 bales of
the world's best fleece went onto three wagons, quickly, with rib ties only
then that RR eased out, over the road, and back into the rail yard were
navies tied the bales on securely, and tarped them. All the while the bale
owners, their reps, and Cheryl our Boss watched and recorded bale numbers
and locations, and photographed everything with a square format Leica with a
bellows lens. This back and forth with loading was repeated morning,
afternoon and night until the urgency was met. Trucks, single drive, single
axle, took the rest. Have you ever lumped wool bales? Best football training
ever, especially for this bloke who was going to play front row for
Australia (but didn't)



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