[AusRace] The Co-efficient of Uncertainty - a system

[Tony Moffat]

>From Lowell Harbison - The Co-efficient of Uncertainty - part 8 Maths in
Games. 

It seems the author has attempted to mechanise the selection processes with
these methods.

Step (1)The distance of TODAYS race is divided by the  weight carried.

 Use 1600/59 =27.118644 (to be precise)

Now take the square root of the square root of the square root of that
27.11= sqrt(sqrt(sqrt(27.118644)= 1.510 and record it.

Step (2) Using the runs out to 58 days(56?) divide the distance of the race
by the weight carried by the finish position less one
Then take the square root of the square root of the square root of that
value and record it.

If the form race was 1600 and the weight carried was 59 and the runner
finished 6th then the calculation is
1600/59 = 27.118644 (but we know that) and that value is divided by 5 - (it
finished 6th less 1) = 5.42 then that value
has the square root of the square root of the square root obtained =
sqrt(sqrt(sqrt( 5.42) = 1.2352358.

There are two values now - 1.510 is an expected performance score in todays
race and 1.235 is the calculated output from a previous race.

The mantissa refers to the digits after the decimal point. The digits .510
are divided by the mantissa .235 =.510/.235 =2.17
and mathematically this runner will finish near 2nd in the next race. A lot
of runners show a finish in clumps, around 2nd, around fifth and beyond 7th.

Further, Mr Harbison was crystal clear on what runs to use in form analysis
- WINS and nothing else. He makes a good point stating that the horse has
carried the weight over the distance and won, the race time is true, the
sectional time is true although at the time of his thesis the act of timing
the race and the sectional was hand timed - this was in NZ. A horse not
winning, he thinks, is because it is outclassed several ways, over weighted,
too short often or too long distance sometimes, or the jockey shouldn't be,
and the trainer likewise.

He uses a mile rate also - now 1609/race distance * race time. He uses the
last race distance/this race distance* last race finish also to get another
variable.

In the first part he used the finish position less one because the runner
was always this distance from the winner - finish 6th, use 5 because this
runner is 5 'horse spaces' from the front of the winner - margins were not
considered.

Mr Harbison (also known as Munro) lived and schooled in Invercargill. 

Another way - may be

Cheers

Tony


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