[AusRace] Robotic Racehorse Selection - a system

[Tony Moffat]

There is a book* about this, and a scholarly paper. There are two other
systems with similar selection criteria. 

 

Simply, the author(s) maintain that racehorses do their best when asked to
repeat their best. 

 

 

If the best result has been over 'the mile', at Moe, with Sally Wynne riding
then it is a bet because its best (recent) endeavour was at Moe, over 'the
mile', with Joe Bowditch up, and 59.5kg. Jakks Fortune just qualified and
won at $17. It qualifies as a bet because Bowditch isn't riding today, it
may not be a bet if he was on something else, or even not riding in this
race, but riding in others. That is me complicating things somewhat, but.
Empire Royal, same race, also qualified, unplaced.

 

There are no rules, nothing printed as such, nil to use to define a bet. A
read of the paper shows this:-

 

The track should be the same

The distance should be the same (today it was 1628 metres)

The weight should be the same

The jockey should be the same

 

The book, however, allows us a little 'wriggle-room'. While the track,
distance, weight and jockey are discussed the book allows a selection/choice
if 2 or 3 or 4 of the conditions are met. Certainly the strike rate does NOT
improve if 4 conditions are used but the average odds do improve (according
to the text).

 

The book and the paper agree on this, the selection must be 'in the money'
or 'have 5% of the pool invested'. There is/was $35k in Jakks Fortunes race
in the win pool - 35000/17.10 = $2046 therefore $2046/35000 = 5. Point
Something%. Without saying it (or much particular anything) the author wants
us to select/back runners found by the system and which have public support
which includes stable backers.

 

In NZ Race 8 Hard Times qualified - won $9.10

Naracoorte Race8 Pewter qualified - won $15.80

MVR1 What a Fox 2nd

MVR4 Doc O'Connor unplaced

MVR4 Fission 2nd

MVR5 Jungle Sensation 2nd

MVR6 4,10,12 finished 1st,2nd,3rd

MVR7 4,8 finished 2nd,3rd

MVR8 She's Booming 2nd (Ollie took over from Willo)

So, it might be good at picking 2nds at Mooneey Valley

 

Ipswich had a couple of winners, those you could claim using the 'wiggle
room' clause mentioned but as there appears runners (14) had limited track
and distance experience using other rules to select did not seem to be
complicit with the 'rules', such as they are. There are 680 lines of form
and of those 14 are particular to the track and distance, that is the point
I am making.

 

Grafton Race 1 Consensio was the ideal qualified runner of all, today.
Unplaced

Grafton Race 4 Noble Missile won

Bathurst R3 Five Foot Apart Won $10

Bathurst R5 Island Rock Won $15

 

Saturday - Kembla

The runner with the most attributes (weight, jockey, distance, track, track
and distance) is in Race 1 Westgrove but it is $101 at present - selections
should claim 5% of the holding (to demonstrate public and private belief in
their ability.

The Gong has 7 and 18, both over $101

The Wara has 1,7,8

 

Another way - perhaps

 

Cheers

 

Tony



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