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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText>There is a book* about this, and a scholarly paper. There are two other systems with similar selection criteria. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Simply, the author(s) maintain that racehorses do their best when asked to repeat their best. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>If the best result has been over 'the mile', at Moe, with Sally Wynne riding then it is a bet because its best (recent) endeavour was at Moe, over 'the mile', with Joe Bowditch up, and 59.5kg. Jakks Fortune just qualified and won at $17. It qualifies as a bet because Bowditch isn't riding today, it may not be a bet if he was on something else, or even not riding in this race, but riding in others. That is me complicating things somewhat, but. Empire Royal, same race, also qualified, unplaced.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>There are no rules, nothing printed as such, nil to use to define a bet. A read of the paper shows this:-<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The track should be the same<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The distance should be the same (today it was 1628 metres)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The weight should be the same<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The jockey should be the same<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The book, however, allows us a little 'wriggle-room'. While the track, distance, weight and jockey are discussed the book allows a selection/choice if 2 or 3 or 4 of the conditions are met. Certainly the strike rate does NOT improve if 4 conditions are used but the average odds do improve (according to the text).<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The book and the paper agree on this, the selection must be 'in the money' or 'have 5% of the pool invested'. There is/was $35k in Jakks Fortunes race in the win pool - 35000/17.10 = $2046 therefore $2046/35000 = 5. Point Something%. Without saying it (or much particular anything) the author wants us to select/back runners found by the system and which have public support which includes stable backers.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>In NZ Race 8 Hard Times qualified - won $9.10<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Naracoorte Race8 Pewter qualified - won $15.80<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>MVR1 What a Fox 2nd<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>MVR4 Doc O'Connor unplaced<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>MVR4 Fission 2nd<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>MVR5 Jungle Sensation 2nd<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>MVR6 4,10,12 finished 1st,2nd,3rd<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>MVR7 4,8 finished 2nd,3rd<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>MVR8 She's Booming 2nd (Ollie took over from Willo)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>So, it might be good at picking 2nds at Mooneey Valley<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Ipswich had a couple of winners, those you could claim using the 'wiggle room' clause mentioned but as there appears runners (14) had limited track and distance experience using other rules to select did not seem to be complicit with the 'rules', such as they are. There are 680 lines of form and of those 14 are particular to the track and distance, that is the point I am making.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Grafton Race 1 Consensio was the ideal qualified runner of all, today. Unplaced<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Grafton Race 4 Noble Missile won<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Bathurst R3 Five Foot Apart Won $10<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Bathurst R5 Island Rock Won $15<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Saturday – Kembla<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The runner with the most attributes (weight, jockey, distance, track, track and distance) is in Race 1 Westgrove but it is $101 at present – selections should claim 5% of the holding (to demonstrate public and private belief in their ability.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The Gong has 7 and 18, both over $101<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The Wara has 1,7,8<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Another way – perhaps<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Cheers<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Tony<o:p></o:p></p></div><div id="DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2"><br /><table style="border-top: 1px solid #D3D4DE;"><tr><td style="width: 55px; padding-top: 13px;"><a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><img src="https://s-install.avcdn.net/ipm/preview/icons/icon-envelope-tick-green-avg-v1.png" alt="" width="46" height="29" style="width: 46px; height: 29px;"/></a></td><td style="width: 470px; padding-top: 12px; color: #41424e; font-size: 13px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">Virus-free.<a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank" style="color: #4453ea;">www.avg.com</a></td></tr></table><a href="#DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2" width="1" height="1"> </a></div></body></html>