[AusRace] Stud in the mud - a system

Tony Moffat tonymoffat at bigpond.com
Thu Mar 17 15:26:23 AEDT 2022

Or: Stun in the sun - it depends on the weather. If these names seem
concocted, you're right.

There has been some discussion in racing literature regarding the speed
capabilities of race horses. Are there mud runners?
Are some hopeless in the wet. Are they sick,sore and won't stretch out on
hard going?
One conclusion, amongst several conclusions, is that when conditions help
some horses run fast times. Other times, when it is wet say, horses also run
fast times for the conditions. They're not breaking speed records but they
are fast, comparatively.

What does happen often is horses are  fast in both wet and dry conditions.
It is these horses that this system seeks to identify.

(1)First (1) decide on your fast horses. Ascertain the going/condition of
the track today. Australia has the 1,2,etc,8,9,10 ranking which simplifies
this process a little. Look in the form and find each/every horses runs that
corresponds with the condition score today and those runs must have been in
good time. 

Regarding good time,I used a score greater than 16 metres/second. Take the
race distance and divide it by the race time. If the result/quotient is 16
or better then pick that run.

(2)Next (2) double the form/condition score and search for runners there.
Condition 4 becomes condition eight. Again look for runners with a time
score better than 16 time score (race distance divided by race time). 

(3) Use the middle score as well. In this example 4 becomes 8, middle score
6. Essentially you are searching 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 to find contenders.

(4) Look for runners in races with condition scores similar to those chosen
primarily. Often the first two culls do not unearth enough runners, 4 or so
over 5 races typically. This rule then asks you to consider the horses
selected under the condition score for today and now the score one less and
one more - 3,4, and 5 condition score if todays score is 4 - one more, one
less, Similarly, the score created in rule two (4 became an 8) is researched
again, one less one more. 

This ferreting (that is what it is), may give you enough runners to fulfil
the selection criteria, a runner in each race or hopefully 2 or 3 and those
outside the gaze of normal form fitting. I mean if you are selecting
condition 8 as a co-hort of condition 4 there is a real possibility this 8
score was run several months ago, when it was winter. A good/fast run back
there, and a good run near here, timewise, might indicate a fast horse that
nobody else is too bothered to include. That is the premise of this system.

It takes 10 minutes to do a meeting, manually. 
I don't use the system and don't recommend it.

Below are the official ratings recognised by all race clubs in Australia

Firm 1: Dry hard track
Firm 2: Firm track with reasonable grass coverage
Good 3: Track with good grass coverage and cushion
Good 4: Track with some give in it
Soft 5: Track with a reasonable amount of give in it
Soft 6: Moist but not a badly affected track
Soft 7: More rain-affected track that will chop out
Heavy 8: Rain affected track that horses will get into
Heavy 9: Wet track getting into a squelchy area
Heavy 10: Heaviest category track, very wet, towards saturation

The speed value used here is derived from
Beaten distance *2.75 = (a)
Form distance minus (a) = (b)
(b) divided by race time (the winners time for the form race) = (c)
If (c) is equal to or better(greater,bigger) than 16.5 it is included.

Both race times are amended using this calculation - the overall race time
and the sectional time.

That equation (if that is what it is) has mathematically derived the runners
time and speed over the form race. To ensure more inclusions (more system
the same equation can be applied to the sectional time also/instead.

For completeness you can utilise the race time calculation, the sectional
calculation, and a calculator to ascertain the speed/time/rating to the
sectional time mark
(in my data this is from the start to the 600 metre mark when the sectional
time starts).

There is more (of course). Because the race starts from a standstill there
is a correction
available for that, the start out to the first two hundred metres. 
If you use that then you are really into the region of decimal points and
minor corrections
which the horse doesn't know about.

The time standard used is the race distance divided by 16.5 (I could write
reams about the derivation of that 16.5 value)
I can explain it by saying it is the product of a horse running 6 lengths a
second nominally. It is the distance, in metres using
2.75 metres a length, that the standard horse covers in a second - 16.5 =
2.75 * 6. Therefore, 1600m/16.5 = 96.96 seconds
1400m = 84.84 seconds, 1200m = 72.72 seconds which most runners contesting
this distance can get. 
Some examples - 
16/03 MR 2 going 4, also search 8 also search 6
Horse 7 Lil Loft(4 & 8) and Horse 8 Lottacheex(4 & 8) - won/2nd 
MR3 Horses 5 and 8 - 1st and 3rd 3.40 and 17.00
Other Finesse Tess unplaced 34.00
MR4 Horses 6 and 8 - 1st and second
MR5 No pick- Dancing Duck unplaced
Advantageous - the requirement is two or so to qualify
MR6 Loss - 1,2,6 qualified but failed
MR 7 2 Eco Warrior 1st
Reflecting Image unp
MR 8 Unp Commands the Field, Summit Queen
MR9 Horse 2 2nd, Horse 12 3rd, Horse 8 unp

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