[AusRace] Bookmakers - a system

[mikemcbain at tpg.com.au]

Tony,

I really appreciate your detailed explanation of these calculations.
 Perhaps my 85yo old brain is getting lazy or hazy but you do make it easy
to understand how these things are calculated.

Keep winning

Mike.

Subject: [AusRace] Bookmakers - a system

There are 3 systems with this name (known to me)
(a) Is an Equestrian publication, that has elements and values for meeting,
or not meeting, a form value -say, raced within 14 days, yes/no?. After all
the form elements are evaluated, scored, added and summed there is a
calculation phase to determine a price. There is no explanation or basis for
the form scores, as in raced within 14 days is either +85 divided by the
number of runners meeting that rule, or -minus 85 divided by the number for
those runners that don't meet that rule.
Another system, although not named 'Bookmaker', has you allocating
plus/minus 100 for the same elements so that each form facet scores out of
100 and when summed totals 0. 

(b) Uses the technique explained by Bookmaking, Clerking and Punting A-X by
Mr Conroy. Maybe he borrowed it from the author, we do that you know, and
named it as his own.

(c) A method, authored by a man who was the form and pricing guru for a
real, actual bookmaker in Melbourne all those years ago.

 He took the place percentage earned by every runner, converted that into a
price (to get a place value- divide 100 by the place % of each) then using
the equation 'place value -1, times 4, minus one' he computed the win price
for each runner off their place value.

Old school place dividends were calculated like that -winners price less 1,
divide by 4, add 1

The result was a long list of massive overs which the bookmaker could/would
twiddle and turn until a sellable range of prices emerged, and the book
value summed to 110 rather than 180 or so earlier.

Yes there were further examinations regarding class - mainly in support of
the newer prices.

The bookmaker made a further value judgement regarding the runner, the
stable, the owners intentions.

An example: Pakenham R8 today
3 Vadarchie has a place % of 100% (1 run, 1 place, a win) and first up from
a spell
9 Vibrant Girl has a place % of 50% (10 runs, 5 places) a win last start
-30+ days
11The Ballet Dancer has a place % of 60%( 5 runs, 3 places) a win last start
- 19 days
Others Judestar 50%.

Vadarchie, using 100/100% = 1 then 1-1*4+1 = 1 which is the bastardised
calculation of its win possibility. Its best tote was $11.00 and it was
selected to feature by the expert(s).

Vibrant Girl using 100/50 = 2 then 2-1(=1)*4+1 = 5. Its tote was $8

Race winner,The Ballet Dancer, has a place percentage of 60% - 100/60 = 1.66
so 1.66 -1= .66 then
.66 *4 =2.64 plus 1 = 3.6 ($3.60) and best tote was $4. Ok not a big
dividend but you get the picture. This runner was not selected by the
experts pre-race.

Actually the winner was down in weight from last start when she won by 3+
lengths in BM80 time and was coming out of a maiden into a BM64. I backed
her as a result and not as a system selection which she was here.

Judestar priced at $7 ran 4th at $7.70

Hope the above information helps you

Cheers

Tony





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