[AusRace] Bookmakers - a system

[Tony Moffat]

There are 3 systems with this name (known to me)
(a) Is an Equestrian publication, that has elements and values for meeting,
or not meeting, a form value -say, raced within 14 days, yes/no?. After all
the form elements are evaluated, scored, added and summed there is a
calculation phase to determine a price. There is no explanation or basis for
the form scores, as in raced within 14 days is either +85 divided by the
number of runners meeting that rule, or -minus 85 divided by the number for
those runners that don't meet that rule.
Another system, although not named 'Bookmaker', has you allocating
plus/minus 100 for the same elements so that each form facet scores out of
100 and when summed totals 0. 

(b) Uses the technique explained by Bookmaking, Clerking and Punting A-X by
Mr Conroy. Maybe he borrowed it from the author, we do that you know, and
named it as his own.

(c) A method, authored by a man who was the form and pricing guru for a
real, actual bookmaker in Melbourne all those years ago.

 He took the place percentage earned by every runner, converted that into a
price (to get a place value- divide 100 by the place % of each) then using
the equation 'place value -1, times 4, minus one' he computed the win price
for each runner off their place value.

Old school place dividends were calculated like that -winners price less 1,
divide by 4, add 1

The result was a long list of massive overs which the bookmaker could/would
twiddle and turn until a sellable range of prices emerged, and the book
value summed to 110 rather than 180 or so earlier.

Yes there were further examinations regarding class - mainly in support of
the newer prices.

The bookmaker made a further value judgement regarding the runner, the
stable, the owners intentions.

An example: Pakenham R8 today
3 Vadarchie has a place % of 100% (1 run, 1 place, a win) and first up from
a spell
9 Vibrant Girl has a place % of 50% (10 runs, 5 places) a win last start
-30+ days
11The Ballet Dancer has a place % of 60%( 5 runs, 3 places) a win last start
- 19 days
Others Judestar 50%.

Vadarchie, using 100/100% = 1 then 1-1*4+1 = 1 which is the bastardised
calculation of its win possibility. Its best tote was $11.00 and it was
selected to feature by the expert(s).

Vibrant Girl using 100/50 = 2 then 2-1(=1)*4+1 = 5. Its tote was $8

Race winner,The Ballet Dancer, has a place percentage of 60% - 100/60 = 1.66
so 1.66 -1= .66 then
.66 *4 =2.64 plus 1 = 3.6 ($3.60) and best tote was $4. Ok not a big
dividend but you get the picture. This runner was not selected by the
experts pre-race.

Actually the winner was down in weight from last start when she won by 3+
lengths in BM80 time and was coming out of a maiden into a BM64. I backed
her as a result and not as a system selection which she was here.

Judestar priced at $7 ran 4th at $7.70

Hope the above information helps you

Cheers

Tony





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