[AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse

Sun Jan 30 23:29:02 AEDT 2022

Lindsay – that is what the book says – runners out for 46 days are now considered as first up (after a spell). The author also gives examples where other delays (returns to racing) can be found when examining a horse racing record. In the example I used the author shows a first up, then a delay of 9 days, 21 days then 37 days and he (the author) says the run on the 9 days is too far back in the form record to have an effect, a bearing, on the upcoming race. 

Personally, I use the last 4 runs no matter (time span excluded and this may include a spell – I use the efforts in a race) and then only the 3 best of the four, no matter when those runs arrived in the form score time line.

I have noticed that distance runners (Cup horses say) often have two runs in 14 days, and four runs in a month. Cam, once a neighbour and a trainer and a bookie, maintained that sprinters (up to 1400) need the extra time and oats to get their strength and speed. Distance horses need to be empty (do I have to explain) but hydrated and may have a large feed after a race but very little in the 48 hours before. None of this fascinating alimentary canal information is in the book btw.

‘Finesse’ relies on horses resuming and gaining fitness through racing – it ain’t that scientifik really. There is plenty of research (statistical examinations I meant) – see Knowles, or Biggs in particular, both of whom did some number crunching to answer the question ‘what form value can you apply to day since last start’

How do you deal with the days away from racing – moderate, include or exclude the form data?

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: Sunday, 30 January 2022 7:02 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse

Not too sure about this…

“Horses running on or after the 46th day are considered to be first up. First

up is a bonus. There is plenty of statistical evidence (otherwise called

results) that shows first uppers win races, more than expected, calculated,

more than their share, more than people (other form tutors) give them credit

for.”

Lindsay

From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com> > On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Sunday, 30 January 2022 7:05 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse

Northerly – yes to Blakemore see: http://ausrace.com/pipermail/racing_ausrace.com/2020-October/001115.html

Wonder what didn’t happen back then. I spoke with Mr Blakemore and got his permission to quote from his books. I sent some information through to him, essentially the email composition which appeared on Ausrace later, then had a reply ready to go regarding a mail from LBL but, for completeness sent it through to Mr Blakemore for information/involvement/approval and heard nothing back – although he had been responding readily to that point. I had tacit approval to continue with the discussion of his books, and the expose of what he was on about, but the steam went out of the discussion because of his silence. I have rung twice subsequently but no answer. I moved on. I hope he is ok.

As to success of “Finesse” perhaps I’ll watch it for a while – I have it on an Excel sheet with data updating from Punting Form and when the next $101 winner arrives (there have been others) I’ll tell youse about it agin

Cheers

Tony

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of norsaintpublishing at gmail.com <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com> 
Sent: Sunday, 30 January 2022 3:26 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse

Tony, I presume you've got Barry Blakemore's Fitness the Key to Winning?

It was interesting at the time. I tried to test a few of his findings a few years ago but either they didn't hold up or I didn't program it properly.

Plus stayers are prepared differently these days, which doesn't really help. 

On Sun, 30 Jan 2022 at 16:24, Tony Moffat <tonymoffat at bigpond.com <mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com> > wrote:

So, how did it go? Selections made after the race.

Rosehill - nil selections
MV - Race 8 Lunar Hero - 15.00 2nd
I checked some other meetings - nil contenders

Apologies for sending that other mail (Carnival) - more on that later m'be
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com> ] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Saturday, 29 January 2022 9:12 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse

This is the third action in a suite of 5 rules of a system named 'Finesse'
sold in Australia in the 70's.

(a) for each 'entrant' find the date of its last spell
(b) count the number of runs it has had since resuming from a spell
(c) add 1 to the number ascertained - first up is 1, 2nd up is 2
(d) sort the horses carrying over the average weight allocated to 'entrants'
- (sum the weights then divide by number of runners) The selections (for
further consideration) come from the top weights with the most runs after a
spell The selections (for further consideration) come from the top weights
showing as greater than 9/1 in the pre post (it says morning line)

Selections are backed to PLACE only. Don't meddle with the rules, most races
will not have a qualifier but over 3 years  of record keeping, the system
averaged 3 selections a week which were paying well.
++++++++++++++++++++++++

 Typed that as shown on the piece of paper you spent $50 (+postage) to get.

Using the 9/1 rule ($10) and in the top weights is speedier and you get a
pick more often but the rules are linked viz most runs + >$10.

Cheers

Tony

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