[AusRace] Fitness - The Key to Winning - a system

[Tony Moffat]

Fitness -The Key to Winning
Barry J Blakemore wrote a series of horse racing form study books. 
I have contacted the author and obtained his permission to quote from his
books
Copyright Barrymore Publications - PO Box 673 BUDERIM Queensland 4556
Thank you Mr Blakemore Ref 07 5476***2 

"Fitness -The Key to Winning" 1993 (56 pages) says this:-
52% winning runners (from multiple runners) when runners conform with an
exposed frequency, when runners start within a few days of a previous run
their winning chances improve, markedly - I did not know that and it's in
the book. Yes it is specific and applicable to a select group but it is a
powerful stat and one that is repeated over various distances of races.
The author uses FITNESS PATTERNS to show and explain the likely capability
of horses generally, and specifically, if runners have attributes shown to
enable them to win, run above expectations, or tire and lose.
Runners, and their re-appearance at the races are categorized (simplified)
as thus, these are the FITNESS PATTERNS
1 to 9 days - simplified to 7 days
10 to 17 days - simplified to 14 days
18 to 24 days - simplified to 21 days
On up to
39 to 45 days - simplified to 42 days
Horses running on or after the 46th day are considered to be first up. First
up is a bonus. There is plenty of statistical evidence (otherwise called
results) that shows first uppers win races, more than expected, calculated,
more than their share, more than people (other form tutors) give them credit
for.
An example of how the book shows us FITNESS PATTERNS - a runner with 9 days
until its next run, then another run on the 19th day along until a third run
on the 39th day in is shown as 9/19/39 which simplifies to 35/21/7 ( see
above). Runs before the 9th day appearance are disregarded, considered to be
too far back in the form score to affect its endeavours now.     
The author then divides races into divisions (1000/1100m- 1200m-1300/1400m,
1500/1600m, etc. until races over 2100m+  are dealt with as a large group.
Nonetheless, within those divisions there are FITNESS PATTERNS/niches that
have percentage scores way over and above other PATTERNS around them.  
So in each race you have runners who had their last starts some days ago,
varying, and those gaps in the days have a value that increases, or
decreases, dependent on the time gap, and also affected by the distance of
the race to be contested. The authors research has shown, or revealed,
niches where runners are more likely to prove competitive, or importantly,
when and where they can be discounted as possibilities. Sprinters need time
to recuperate, distance runners need racing to keep them ticking along,
first uppers over sprint distances are dynamite (I said that), 3 runs in 31
days can be a good thing, or a bad thing, a great thing or an occasion when
a judgement is required - it's in the book.
Further reviews of the authors other books will be posted soon.
The Key Factor is Fitness 1997 - Barrymore Publications
The Key Factor is Fitness  - The System 1997 82 pages - Barrymore
Publications
The Secrets of Class and other Key Factors 2000 180 pages - Barrymore
Publications
The Secrets of Class - The System 2001 -80 pages - Barrymore Publications
Weights Right 2004 136 pages - Barrymore Publications
These publications are an intellectual investment in winner finding, horse
racing generally, honest and earnest reasoning regarding the punt. The
Secrets of Class (both) are well researched and well written. The same can
be said of Weights Right. The others are a little dated. All books hold true
to the method(s) written about in The Key Factor is Fitness. They are all
out of print.
Thank you Mr Blakemore

Cheers

Tony




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